FX Markets Update Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ now likely to start cutting rates in August Given the recent slate of weak economic data we now expect the RBNZ to start loosening policy in August, rather than in November as we were previously predicting. For one thing, timely activity data... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2024) Today’s CPI release confirms that inflation is all but certain to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target by Q3. In the context of an extremely weak economy and a rapidly loosening labour market, there is a... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Despite some snags, inflation will cool in earnest Administered price inflation is looking to be somewhat sticky in Australia, reflecting a combination of tax increases on select goods and elevated cost pressures across a range of public services. On... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025 Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025 Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation... 26th June 2024 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2024) The modest rebound in GDP last quarter doesn’t change the bigger picture that the New Zealand economy is worse for wear. In fact, timely survey data suggest that things may well get worse before they... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past impact of energy rebates This week the Queensland government followed in the footsteps of the Western Australian government and the Commonwealth by announcing significantly more generous energy subsidies for households. With... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals rate cuts may have to wait Although it left rates unchanged at its meeting today, the RBNZ indicated that interest rates may have to stay higher for longer. However, we think the Bank is overstating the upside risks to the... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government leaves RBA to go it alone Contrary to the claims made by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, measures in the 2024/25 Budget will do little to alleviate price pressures. That means the onus of bringing inflation under control will fall... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
