Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hospitalisations could pose risk to reopening New South Wales and Victoria look set to remain under heavy restrictions until the vaccinations thresholds can be met. But with cases and hospitalisations surging there is a risk that hospitals will... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reopening moving closer as vaccine rollout speeds up The easing of restrictions for vaccinated people in New South Wales announced today fell short of expectations but with the vaccine rollout accelerating, Australia’s lockdowns should end towards the... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ may delay hiking until May The recent reimposition of the strictest level of lockdown in New Zealand was enough to prevent the RBNZ from hiking rates in August. And our assumption that restrictions will now remain in place... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to delay tightening until next year A fresh lockdown upended the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s plan to raise interest rates this week. Given that the latest virus outbreak is driven by the highly contagious Delta variant, we suspect... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ ready to lift rates when restrictions ease The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it left rates on hold today, but the decision demonstrates that the Bank is taking a cautious approach in light of the current lockdown. Assuming restrictions can be... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine roll-out accelerating as activity stalls The outbreak of the Delta variant in Australia has continued to worsen. More states are now in lockdown and sentiment is deteriorating. That poses a downside risk to our Q3 GDP forecast. However the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ set to hike rates by 50 basis points The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating and the Bank’s mandates for both inflation and the labour market are now fulfilled. We therefore expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps at its upcoming... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may hike rates by 50 basis points in two weeks The tightening in the labour market back to pre-virus levels in Q2 is further evidence that the New Zealand economy is now overheating. As such, the financial markets are right in anticipating a rate... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Three key points about New Zealand’s labour market While the unemployment rate is now back at its pre-virus low, a range of indicators suggest that there is still some slack in the labour market. We think the unemployment rate may eventually fall to 3... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand- Labour Market (Q2 2021) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% all but confirms our forecast that the RBNZ will hike rates at its August meeting. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccination threshold may be hit in four months With new virus cases hitting fresh highs this week, Sydney’s lockdown has been extended until end-August and looks set to last for months given the high transmissibility of the Delta variant... 30th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity to rebound in fourth quarter With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to push back taper With New South Wales today declaring a “national emergency” in response to the worsening outbreak of the highly contagious Delta variant, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to play its part... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to tighten policy as inflation surges The RBNZ announced an end to its asset purchases at this week’s meeting. And given the Bank’s hawkish tone, along with the strong inflation data in Q2, we now think the Bank will begin lifting... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) We had already expected the RBNZ to hike rates in August and the surge in inflation in Q2 only bolsters our confidence in that forecast. 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
