Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget 2022 set to remain supportive Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy outlined this week that he thinks fiscal policy should remain loose until interest rates have been normalised to avoid exacerbating financial risks. Add in the... 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ hiking cycle has further to run The New Zealand economy remained hot at the end of last year. And while the Omicron outbreak may disrupt activity in Q1, we expect the impact to be short-lived. We therefore forecast the RBNZ to... 16th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Border reopening won’t ease labour shortages much The full reopening of the border will prompt more Australians to make holidays overseas. The key point though is that it sends a powerful message that the worst of the pandemic is now behind us, which... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA hiking cycle to start as RBNZ’s ends The RBA is coming around to the view that rates will need to be hiked this year. And our forecast that inflation will continue to surprise the Bank in the months ahead is why we think it will start... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Q4 2021) The further decline in the unemployment rate to a record low of 3.2% will keep the RBNZ on its hiking cycle in the months ahead. But we suspect the unemployment rate will rise again before long. 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates in August The jump in consumer prices in Q4 reflected further strong gains in the usual suspects of petrol prices and costs of new dwelling purchases. But services inflation has picked up sharply as well. With... 28th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4 2021) The persistent rise in inflation to the highest levels in 30 years will be worrying the RBNZ. That’s why we expect the Bank to hike aggressively in the first half of this year. 26th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates this year The fall in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.2% in December means the labour market is now the tightest it has been since 2008. That all but confirms our forecast that the RBA will end its asset... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s consumer exuberance won’t last The strong rebound in consumer spending in November is consistent with our view that GDP surpassed its pre-lockdown peak in Q4 already. And while the Omicron tsunami seems to have resulted in a... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Housing downturn will lead to RBNZ rate cuts in 2023 While the strength in New Zealand’s economy will cause the RBNZ to hike rates further this year, we think the RBNZ will end its hiking cycle earlier than the financial markets anticipate. What’s more... 12th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly We still expect the RBA to end QE in February Surging cases of the Omicron variant are putting Australia’s healthcare system under pressure and will weigh on consumption in Q1. But we think fresh lockdowns will be avoided. What’s more, growing... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
