Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to hike aggressively this year The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting show that it is coming around to our view that rates will need to be hiked before long. We expect next week’s Q1 CPI data to show inflation surpassing 4%, which... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central Bankers’ confidence dilemma Inflation is surging in both Australia and New Zealand. That is putting pressure on central banks to hike interest rates to slow the economy and curb inflation. But both the RBNZ and the RBA... 21st April 2022 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2022) The 1.8% q/q rise in consumer prices in Q1 was broadly in line with the RBNZ’s expectations, which reduces the likelihood of another 50 basis point hike in the OCR in May. But we still think high... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi to fall back as tightening cycles underwhelm The Aussie and the Kiwi have been amongst the best performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far this year but, while we expect both to remain resilient in 2022, we eventually expect them to... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to follow RBNZ as inflation about to surge The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered the 50bp rate hike we were anticipating this week and we think that the Reserve Bank of Australia will embark on its own tightening cycle in June. With the... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike rates to 3.0% The RBNZ’s decision to accelerate its hiking cycle shows it is willing to move decisively to get a hand on surging inflation. That’s in line with our forecast that it will hike the OCR to 3.0% by the... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA signals June rate hike is coming After the RBA this week signalled that it will no longer be patient when it comes to tightening policy, the consensus has come around to our long-held view that the Bank will start to lift interest... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate tightening cycle with 50bp hike Inflation is set to exceed the RBNZ’s forecasts yet again this year. With the Bank becoming increasingly worried that soaring inflation will dislodge inflation expectations, we think it will hike... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening adds fuel to inflation fire The huge expansion in public spending since the start of the pandemic is a key reason why we expect Australia’s GDP to have surpassed its pre-virus trend at the start of this year despite the drag on... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures rising Australia’s flash PMI for March provides further evidence that the pace of price rises is increasing and we think that strong inflation will convince the RBA to hike interest rates in June. Meanwhile... 25th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Fixed mortgages won’t protect the housing market New Zealand’s high share of fixed mortgage rates won’t insulate the housing market from RBNZ rate hikes. Indeed, we’re sticking to our view that house prices will fall this year and cause the RBNZ to... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget to target inflation while reducing deficits The New Zealand government this week reduced fuel excise taxes by 25 cents per litre for three months. And Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has indicated the Australian Budget due on the 29 th... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4 2021) The rebound in GDP at the end of last year was larger than the RBNZ was anticipating, which should keep the Bank on its hiking track. And we expect the rebound to have continued in the current quarter... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation expectations already rising Rising energy prices are set to lift Australian inflation further above the RBA’s target in the months ahead. And while consumer confidence has soured in response to soaring inflation, the high... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
