Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts, but more loosening unlikely The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) cut rates today, but given our view that the rupee will come under pressure again this year, we think this will probably mark the last cut in 2019. 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, trade war escalates, rate cuts While we had been expecting an escalation in US-China trade tensions, China’s decision to allow the renminbi to weaken through 7.0/US$ in response to Trump’s latest tariffs means events are moving... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Sri Lanka accelerated in the first quarter of the year, but with tourism arrivals collapsing following the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks, growth is likely to slow sharply this year. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would US rate cuts mean for Asia? Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Weaker growth is here to stay With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts not the start of aggressive easing cycle The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) was able to cut rates today as a result of the resilience of the currency, but we doubt this will last. We think that the rupee will come under pressure again this... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines inflation, Asia’s “currency manipulators” Signs that Philippines inflation continued to tumble in May suggest that the easing cycle there has further to run. Meanwhile, easing is also likely in Malaysia, Korea and Singapore in the second half... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weakest growth in a decade, further weakness ahead Growth slowed sharply in Emerging Asia last quarter, and is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming year, with looser fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIS (Apr.) A slight improvement in the April PMIs fits with yesterday’s trade data from Korea in suggesting that the region’s economies have passed the worst. That said, we still expect regional growth to remain... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: the economic impact of the attacks The deadly terrorist attacks that took place across Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday are first and foremost a human tragedy, but are also likely to have severe economic consequences. A big drop in tourist... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak export growth looks set to continue The most recent trade data, including the very weak outturn in Korean exports over the first 20 days of this month, suggest that regional trade remains in the doldrums. With the external sector facing... 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Technology slump bottoms out, Philippines budget A slump in electronics exports has been a key drag on economic growth across Asia in recent months, but there are tentative signs that the worst may now be over. Meanwhile, after months of delays, the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply in the final quarter of last year, and although we expect growth to pick up a little over the coming quarters, a combination of tighter fiscal and monetary... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Sri Lanka slowed in Q3, but this has already been overshadowed by the de-escalation of the political crisis. With further fiscal tightening on the horizon, growth is likely to remain... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka political crisis: growth to slow, rates to rise With the political crisis in Sri Lanka showing no sign of coming to an end, we are changing our GDP growth and interest rate forecasts for next year. 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
