Asia Economics Update What if shutdowns don’t work in South Asia? The impracticality of social distancing for many will make it hard for countries in South Asia to contain the coronavirus. Failure to contain the disease would have dreadful humanitarian consequences... 22nd April 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will a drop in remittances cause further pain? The scale of job losses and falls in incomes caused by coronavirus containment measures across the world – but particularly in the US and the Gulf – is likely to weigh heavily on remittance inflows... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka to keep rates on hold this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left interest rates unchanged today, and while it kept the door open to loosening, high inflation and the CBSL’s concern over the rupee limits the scope for... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Coronavirus: the long-term impact on supply chains The coronavirus itself may not trigger a wholesale reorganisation of supply chains, but it strengthens the argument for companies to reduce associated risks. One response might be to introduce more... 2nd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: further cuts unlikely after surprise cut The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) unexpectedly cut interest rates today but given our view that the rupee will come under downward pressure again this year, the scope for further loosening is... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan election, Thailand’s currency dilemma Given her huge lead in the opinion polls, it will come as a major surprise if Tsai Ing-wen is not re-elected for a second and final term as Taiwan’s president on Saturday. However, whether Tsai can... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to cut again, Sri Lanka on slow road to recovery Minutes from the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) November rate meeting reveal that while only one of the seven members of its Monetary Policy Board voted for a cut, other members also struck a dovish tone. We... 20th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2020 and how we differ from consensus Growth in Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year. While most economies should stage a modest recovery over the coming quarters on the back of looser fiscal and monetary policy, with China... 19th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) were slightly more positive in November, suggesting that while industry remains weak it is starting to recover. The continued improvement in PMIs for China provides... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update A slow recovery ahead GDP growth was either flat or picked up slightly in most parts of Emerging Asia last quarter, and we think regional growth will rise gradually over the coming year helped by a slow recovery in exports... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect from Sri Lanka after the election GDP growth in Sri Lanka is likely to remain weak whichever of the two main candidates wins the presidential election on Saturday. 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) softened slightly last month and continue to suggest that industry remains weak. The PMIs for China gave mixed signals, but on balance provide some hope for a pickup... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s GDP figures overstating health of economy Sri Lanka’s economy held up better than we had expected last quarter given the drag from the recent terrorist attacks on the country. But we suspect that the published figures overstate the real... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea budget boost, inflation remains low in August The announcement yesterday of plans for a large fiscal boost in Korea’s draft 2020 budget has led us to revise up our Korea growth forecast for next year to 2.5%, from 2.0% previously. That said, we... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
