Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to rising oil prices? The recent jump in oil prices poses a significant upside risk to our inflation and interest rate forecasts for this year. Central banks would normally “look through” a one-off jump in the price level... 28th February 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan export orders unlikely to keep rising rapidly Taiwan new export orders picked up for a third straight month in January. While we expect this trend to go into reverse soon, a large backlog of unmet orders will keep the region’s exporters busy... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Ukraine adds to inflation risks, SE Asia reopening The recent rise in oil prices poses a key upside risk to our inflation forecasts. We already expect rate hikes this year in Korea, India and Indonesia. We think Taiwan, where price pressures have... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January Manufacturing PMIs suggest that regional industry remains in rude health after a very strong end to last year. While there are signs that producers are having some success in tackling large... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4, provisional) GDP growth in Taiwan rebounded last quarter on the back of a recovery in consumer spending, and we estimate the economy ended the year around 4% above its pre-virus trend. Growth is set to slow over... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM equities may continue to underperform in 2022-23 We think that emerging market (EM) equities will continue to underperform their developed market (DM) peers over the next couple of years, even if that underperformance is far less stark than it was... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect in Emerging Asia in 2022 Asia will be – contrary to consensus expectations for widespread hikes – the only EM region in which the median central bank isn’t tightening this year. 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Industry momentum strong going into 2022 Manufacturing PMIs and timely trade data reveal that Asia’s export-focussed industry gained momentum at the turn of the year. While the Omicron variant presents a key threat to the outlook, it is... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia will not follow the Fed Domestic factors, rather than the actions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine what happens to monetary policy across Asia over the coming year. – This will be the last Economics Weekly for 2021... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: rates to stay low despite rising inflation Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.125% and despite rising inflation, surging property prices and the strong economy, we don’t think policymakers will be in any rush... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan in no rush to raise interest rates The central bank of Taiwan is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next Thursday (both the consensus and ourselves expect no change). Despite the economy operating well-above its... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the rebound in industry from the Delta wave in South East Asia continued last month, and we suspect it has further to run. Drop-In: India – How much scarring... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
