Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Nascent export rebound has further to run EM goods exports remained weak in May, but partial June data point to a fledgling recovery. This is likely to continue in the coming months, although a number of factors look set to constrain the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The PMIs point to an improvement in manufacturing conditions last month, although many readings are still low and suggest that overall manufacturers continue to struggle. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan keeps rates on hold, but easing likely to resume Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.125%, but given the poor outlook for the economy, we think it will cut again soon. 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: raising our GDP forecasts on stronger exports With domestic infections contained, the main way in which the global pandemic has threatened Taiwan economically is through weakness in external demand. Exports have held up much better than we had... 8th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Which countries will rebound fastest? The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while economic activity is picking up across most of the region, the pace of recovery varies significantly by country. We expect China, Singapore... 8th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) We suspect that PMI readings do not accurately reflect the change in industry conditions last month, but they are still indicative of the fact that output remains very depressed. 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bumps in Korea’s recovery, how to interpret the PMIs A couple of new outbreaks of coronavirus in Korea’s capital city, Seoul, has led to renewed fears of a second wave of infections. The recent spike appears to have put the recovery on hold and has led... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Infections ease, but recovery proving slow Though there are notable exceptions, there are some encouraging signs that new infections of the coronavirus are falling in many places in Emerging Asia. The slowing spread of the virus should allow... 8th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia sank sharply in April and are unlikely to have bottomed out yet in many places. Any recovery in industry thereafter is set to be very slow going. 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) Taiwan’s economy contracted by 1.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, and things are likely to get much worse before they get better. Despite containing the virus at home, a slump in global growth... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South Asia and Indonesia are a big worry We remain deeply concerned about the rapidly rising number of cases of coronavirus across South Asia as well as Indonesia. A failure to contain the virus would have significant economic consequences... 27th April 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan headed for recession despite containment success Taiwan’s success at containing the coronavirus outbreak at home will not prevent the economy from falling into a huge recession this year. We think the economy will shrink by 5% this year, which would... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia suggest that industry has been hit hard by the coronavirus, and we suspect the readings will deteriorate much further in the next couple of months. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan cuts rates, more easing likely In response to the rapidly worsening outlook for the economy, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today cut its key policy rate today by 25bps to 1.125% and announced other measures to support the economy... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus New forecasts for Emerging Asia as coronavirus spreads There is a huge amount of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis continues to unfold, and any forecasts should be taken with more than the usual... 10th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update What do falling oil prices mean for Emerging Asia? Most countries in Emerging Asia are net importers of oil, so would usually stand to gain from a big drop in prices. But with the coronavirus continuing to spread and people increasingly avoiding... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
