Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMIs from Asia remained weak and while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q3, first estimate) Taiwan’s economy rebounded in Q3, and we expect GDP growth to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters, helped by robust export demand. 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the relative prospects for EM equities The recent outperformance of emerging market equities, relative to their developed market peers, has almost entirely reversed in October and we think this may be a sign of things to come. 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (September) The September PMIs from Asia generally declined from the previous month. And while the PMI surveys aren’t always a good guide to the hard activity data, their recent signals are consistent with our... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Could the stock market ride out a recession? Investors' concerns about the health of the US economy have intensified again, contributing to a selloff in global equity markets. The US stock market rode out an earnings recession last year thanks... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think Asian currencies’ rallies will slow, not stop We expect most Asian currencies to make further gains against the US dollar over time, even if their biggest rallies may now be behind them. 27th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update East Asian equities could outperform again before long Equity markets in East Asia suffered very sharp declines earlier this week, but have generally recovered since. We think the rebound has scope to go a lot further as recession fears in the US prove... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea growth worries, new Taiwan GDP forecast The latest batch of data from Korea underline how much the economy has struggled in recent months. Despite the weak economy, the jump in inflation last month has dashed any hopes of a rate cut at the... 2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (July) The July PMIs from Emerging Asia nudged down slightly from the previous month but remained close to their two-year highs. However, the PMI data have been a poor guide to the hard activity data over... 1st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, first estimate) Taiwan’s economy almost stalled in the second quarter, with growth coming in well below our expectations. While we think GDP growth will pick up in the second half of the year, we are cutting our full... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update La Niña poses downside risks to inflation in SE Asia A La Niña could bring with it favourable growing conditions for crops in South East Asia, and help to put downward pressure on food prices across the region. It adds to the reasons to think the... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
