Chief Economist's Note UK public finances need fixing, but so do the rules that bind the Treasury This will be a big week for the UK economy. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet to set interest rates. Only a few months ago it had seemed that this would be... 29th July 2024
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jun. 24) Net lending to property increased for the third month in a row in June, and the rise of £1.31bn was the largest since the end of 2021. In line with last month the gain was entirely due to a rise in... 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2024) June’s money and lending data provided a bit more evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade, which supports our view that the economic recovery may be a bit stronger than most... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The risks to inflation from rising shipping costs We think shipping costs would have to rise a lot further before having a significant bearing on consumer price inflation. Even so, the ongoing rise in shipping rates presents yet another upside risk... 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch It’s close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longer While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent strength and the stickiness of services inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will wait until its September meeting to cut... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Commercial property capital values bottom out The Q2 RICS commercial survey added to the growing body of evidence that capital values at the all-property level have now bottomed out. But, in line with our forecasts, it also implied that the... 25th July 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Sterling still likely to weaken later this year While the pound has outperformed all major G10 currencies so far this year, we still expect it to depreciate against the greenback later in the year as the Bank of England eases monetary policy more... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Supermarket recovery delayed, but still imminent Supermarkets struggled in 2023, as falling food sales volumes hit profits and rental growth. But the future looks brighter. As food price inflation has fallen supermarket profits have recovered and... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2024) July’s composite PMI suggests some of the recent rebound in activity this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the weakness of activity last year and GDP growth is easing towards a more... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Is the UK’s fiscal situation as bad as the Chancellor says? Without wishing to downplay the ugly fiscal picture, we think the new government is overplaying the gloom. We suspect more optimistic economic forecasts and various tweaks to the fiscal rules will... 23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Pay rise for NHS staff and teachers not a big inflationary risk We doubt the independent pay review bodies’ recommendations for the government to give teachers and NHS staff a 5.5% pay rise will prevent wage growth from slowing to 3.0% by the end of next year. But... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market to surpass expectations in 2025 House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered... 22nd July 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slump in new homes makes housing target a stretch Given the UK recently got much closer to the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year than is acknowledged, you might think that the Planning and Infrastructure Bill announced in the King... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2024) June’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that public borrowing is on track to come in a little higher than the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn. Admittedly, the OBR may grant the... 19th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update UK looking increasingly attractive compared to France Newfound political stability in the UK contrasts with the now more uncertain political backdrop in France. A better relative outlook for economic growth and risk-free rates had already led to a... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May 2024) While the easing in wage growth in May was broadly in line with what the consensus and the Bank of England expected, it probably won’t offset the Bank’s concerns about the stickiness of services... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
