UK Economics Update

Assessing the implications of the market turmoil for the UK

Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent turmoil in global financial markets, we do not think a double-dip recession is on the cards. Nonetheless, the disorderly market reaction, if...

6th August 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Investment recovering, but not without risks

While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three...

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul 24)

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

London industrial demand will soon recover

The impact of the cost-of-living crisis, which has been weighing on London industrial take-up, has a bit further to run. But London is well-positioned to benefit from the rise in consumer spending we...

5th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Doubting the BoE’s hawkish tilt

It may seem odd that we’re still forecasting interest rates to fall from 5.00% now to 4.50% this year and to 3.00% next year when the Bank of England said this week that it doesn't expect to cut rates...

2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What’s next for markets as BoE cuts and Fed gets close

Bond yields have fallen in the US and the UK after the Fed signalled an imminent rate cut and the Bank of England delivered one. But only in the UK do we see more room down for yields.

1st August 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

Rates cut to 5.00%, but BoE in no rush to cut again

The Bank of England kick-started a loosening cycle today by cutting interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00%, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest it will proceed cautiously. Accordingly, we...

1st August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Aug. 2024)

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Office conversion proceeding faster than expected

We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more...

1st August 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Price Index (Jul. 2024)

1st August 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Key highlights from July

This Monthly looks at some of the key climate-related developments in July, including the latest climate policy changes made by the new UK government, the effect of overcapacity on Chinese solar...

31st July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Upside risks to interest rates have increased

We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%...

31st July 2024 · 10 mins read

Global Economics Update

Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle

In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

The market implications of the UK’s spending shortfall

The lack of much reaction on net in markets to today’s statement by the UK’s new Chancellor suggests to us that investors remain confident in the Labour Party’s commitment to fiscal discipline. But...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

How will Reeves fill the £22bn spending shortfall?

Our best judgement is that in order to fund the increase in spending of £22bn outlined by the Chancellor today, Reeves will raise an additional £10bn a year (0.3% of GDP) via higher taxes and increase...

29th July 2024 · 6 mins read