UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul. 2024) The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. But we doubt this will be enough to prompt a back-to-back 25... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Sep 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed forecasters are finally coming around to our long-held view that retail will preform relatively well over the next five years. Total returns for all the retail... 6th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession possible, full recession unlikely We don’t think the lingering concerns about the health of the US economy mean that the chances of the UK economy slipping back into recession are much higher. Instead, the fading drag from higher... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Aug. 2024) The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in August supports our view that the fall in the Nationwide house price index in the same month was a blip and isn’t the start of... 6th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in August, but at 53.6 it remained in expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month. 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Higher fuel duty wouldn’t reignite inflation In a week when the Prime Minister said that the coming Budget will be “painful”, we think there’s a growing chance that fuel duty will rise from next year for the first time since 2011. That will... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Jul. 24) Net lending to commercial property was positive for the fourth consecutive month in July, albeit by a smaller £520mn. With development lending still negative, this was driven entirely by a rise in... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2024) July’s money and lending data provide further evidence that a steady improvement in the flow and demand of credit is supporting the economic recovery. That said, credit growth is unlikely to... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Price Index (Aug. 2024) Despite the recent declines in mortgage rates, the small fall in the Nationwide house price index in August suggests affordability constraints on households continue to bite. But the further drop in... 30th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily UK interest rate exceptionalism unlikely to last The ongoing reassessment of the monetary policy outlook in the US and Europe has (again) made the UK look like an outlier. We doubt that will last. 28th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the City of London bouncing back? City offices have underperformed their West End neighbours by a wide margin since 2022. More encouraging recent data have led us to revise up our City rental projections, but we still expect stronger... 28th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to stay above the 2% target for longer The 10% rise in the Ofgem utility price cap due to take effect on 1st October means that we now expect CPI inflation to rebound from 2.2% in July to 2.9% in November and not fall below 2.0% until June... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns Commercial property yields and capital values have stabilised in recent months, which has encouraged investors to dip their toes back into the sector. But the recovery is set to be a weak one... 22nd August 2024 · 26 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug. 2024) August’s composite PMI provides further evidence that some of the recent strength of activity in the first half of this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the mild recession in the... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will public sector pay rises drive up inflation? We don’t think the slew of inflation-busting public sector pay deals that have been agreed by the new government will prevent wage growth from slowing next year to the rates of 3.0-3.5% we think are... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
