Chief Economist's Note Three big questions about the global economic outlook Last week I participated in a small roundtable with investors and economists. It was notable – if not entirely surprising – that the broad topics of conversation chimed with a lot of recent... 25th September 2024
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2024) The fall in September’s composite flash PMI is probably not a sign that the economy is on the cusp of another downturn, but instead is further evidence that real GDP growth has slowed towards a more... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The BoE won’t diverge from the Fed for long It makes sense to us that the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates gradually as it has yet to follow the Fed by shifting from worrying less about inflation and worrying more about weak... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2024) August’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn by £6.2bn. And although... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The unexpected large rise in retail sales volumes in August came on the back of a 0.7% m/m increase in July (revised up from 0.5% m/m) and lends some support to our view that the recent stagnation in... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy may bring a brighter future to Gilts While UK Gilt yields might rise a bit further in the near term, we think that they will fall back before long, as the Bank of England eventually delivers more rate cuts than most anticipate. 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 24) Yields have now peaked in most sectors and capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past standards. Thanks to... 19th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE stresses rate cuts will be gradual, but rates may still fall to 3% By leaving interest rates at 5.00% the Bank of England showed it is more like the ECB than the Fed and will continue to cut interest rates gradually rather than rapidly. We expect only one more 25... 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19 Sep. 2024) By leaving interest rates at 5.00% the Bank of England showed it is more like the ECB than the Fed and is cutting interest rates gradually rather than rapidly. We expect only one further 25bps cut... 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will remote work go into reverse? We doubt the announcement by Amazon that it is requiring office-based workers to return full-time marks the start of a reversal in the remote work share. It is far from clear that requiring five days... 18th September 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) CPI inflation stayed at 2.2% in August (consensus & CE 2.2%, BoE 2.4%), but the rise in services inflation from 5.2% to 5.6% suggests the Bank of England will probably press the pause button on... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) We doubt the small fall in Nationwide house prices in August was the start of a renewed downturn. Surveys suggest the recent declines in mortgage rates have led to an increase in housing demand, while... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The fine line between delivering fiscal prudence and growth The Office for Budget Responsibility’s “Fiscal risks and sustainability report" showed that if left unchecked the public debt to GDP ratio would spiral from 98% now to 274% by the mid-2070s. But there... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Should institutions be worried about Renters’ Rights? By making life harder for unscrupulous landlords, the Renters’ Rights Bill may help drive tenant demand toward institutional landlords who are already complying with most aspects of the proposed... 13th September 2024 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch Slow pace of rate cuts initially, before quickening next year We agree with the widespread expectation that the 25 basis point (bps) cut in interest rates in August will be followed by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leaving rates at 5.00% on Thursday 19th... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus The post-election UK economic landscape The structural deterioration in the fiscal situation suggests that a tight grip on the public finances in the Budget on 30th October will be necessary. That’s why we think the government will maintain... 12th September 2024 · 14 mins read
