UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (2nd Nov. 2023) The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and to double down on the message that rates cuts are far away supports our view that rates will stay at 5.25% until... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2023) The large increase in house prices in October was a massive surprise given higher mortgage rates should be severely restricting the number of people able to buy and the amount they can spend. But at... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Higher for longer narrative has gone too far While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates... 30th October 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Sep. 23) Net lending to property totaled £132mn in September, the lowest amount since February. But looking through the monthly volatility, on a 3-month basis lending has totaled more than £1.5bn in every... 30th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response BoE Mortgage Lending (Sep.23) The drop in mortgage approvals in September left them a third below their usual level in the years leading up to the pandemic as high mortgage rates put homeowners off moving and priced many first... 30th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Sep. 2023) The further easing in bank lending in September will continue to weigh on activity, particularly in the housing market. This is consistent with our view that a mild recession may already be underway... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Eroding trust in data leaves policymakers in a bind In recent months there has been a growing number of question marks over the accuracy of key economic data. As a result, it’s more important than usual to not put too much weight on any one indicator... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for developed market government bonds In line with our upwardly revised forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we’ve raised our projections for 10-year government bond yields in most other developed market economies. But we still... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3 2023) Having started the year on a somewhat promising footing, all-property occupier demand has weakened since and fell further in Q3. The demand balances for offices and retail remained significantly... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch A long time on the top of the mountain We think the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the second policy meeting in a row on Thursday 2nd November, that rates will stay at their peak for a bit longer than most... 26th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Effectiveness of Mortgage Guarantee varies by region The proposed extension to the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme could prove a good counter-cyclical policy in areas where house prices are relatively low. But the scheme has far less impact in London and the... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Weak housing market to squeeze spending and investment We suspect that more weakness in the housing market will weigh on real GDP by further reducing residential investment and consumer spending. This is one reason why we think the economy is close to a... 25th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation back to target by end-2024 Global headline inflation has fallen sharply from its peak a year ago and, despite a temporary setback due to higher fuel inflation, we expect it to fall a lot further over the coming year. The huge... 24th October 2023 · 16 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Resurgence in London office demand unlikely to last Active demand for London office space hit a four year high in Q3, but we doubt that will drive a decline in vacancy rates. Most of the rise will reflect churn as firms make moves that had been delayed... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Oct. 2023) The composite activity PMI inched up from 48.5 in September to 48.6 in October after five months of declines. But that still leaves the PMI at a level that, historically, has been consistent with a... 24th October 2023 · 3 mins read
