UK Housing Market Update Downward trend in mortgage rates unlikely to continue Falls in financial market interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will drop to a six-month low in December. That will support a further recovery in housing market activity in the near term... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising arrears not translating into forced sales The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that the high cost of borrowing has continued to price many out of the market and made new BTL investment unattractive. But while arrears are rising... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Contraction in October sets scene for stagnation in 2024 The 0.3% m/m fall in real GDP in October (consensus forecast 0.0%, CE forecast -0.2%) suggests that the economy may go nowhere again in Q4 or perhaps is in the mildest of mild recessions. That may... 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still see scope for further falls in bond yields While US inflation for November was almost exactly as the analysts’ consensus had predicted, the yields of long-dated government bonds still rose a bit on the news in most places. But we continue to... 12th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2023) The sharp fall in wage growth in October will probably further fuel investors’ expectations that interest rates could be cut as soon as the middle of next year and it leaves our forecast for rate cuts... 12th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Hybrid working to boost Central London office demand Hybrid working is gradually allowing firms to cut back on the amount of office space they require, but it also means they need to think more about the attractiveness of their offices to support... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tide turning to earlier rate cuts, but BoE to cut last Investors now think the first interest rate cut will happen in June next year instead of August, with an 80% chance of a cut by May. Our forecast is that the Bank of England won’t cut interest rates... 8th December 2023 · 10 mins read
BoE Watch BoE unlikely to fuel market rate cut expectations With the Bank of England almost certain to keep interest rates at 5.25% for the third policy meeting in a row on Thursday 14th December, the focus will be on whether the Bank provides any signals of... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Focus Do elections really matter for the economy? The economic influence of elections is often overstated. They have only tended to have significant effects if governments have embarked on big structural reforms, interfered with monetary policy or... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons from 2023 and forecasts for 2024 Even though we expect the economy to be weaker than the consensus in 2024, we think that lingering constraints on domestic supply will prevent wage growth and services CPI inflation from falling quite... 7th December 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2023) The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in November mirrored the increase in the Nationwide index, confirming that house prices have not only stabilised, but are rising... 7th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 6th December 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Nov.) The headline CIPS construction PMI barely changed in November, settling at 45.5 from 45.6 in October, and was still below the 50 “no-change” mark. The sharp fall in the commercial balance was offset... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rising cost of foreign holidays to support hotel demand Hotel demand has suffered recently from the impact of high inflation and interest rates weighing on discretionary spending. But thanks to the soaring cost of foreign holidays and a revival in... 5th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
