UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2023 Final) The 0.1% q/q fall in real GDP in Q3 may mean that the mildest of mild recessions started in Q3. But whether or not there is a small recession, the big picture is that we expect real GDP growth to... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Nov. 2023) We doubt November’s public finances figures will prevent the Chancellor from unveiling a further pre-election fiscal splash in the Spring Budget. 21st December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Slower economic recovery is a risk for retail rents High interest rates have taken longer to percolate through the economy than we expected, but we now think consumer spending will contract over the next six months. That poses a risk to our retail rent... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Nov. 2023) For the second month in a row, the falls in CPI inflation from 4.6% in October to 3.9% in November (consensus forecast 4.4%, CE 4.5%, BoE 4.6%) and services CPI inflation from 6.6% to 6.3% (CE... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Investors’ growing expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in March next year, as well as the recent soft UK wage and inflation data, have convinced investors that the Bank of England... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Taking stock of investors’ interest rate expectations Fed officials have pushed back a bit against market bets for rate cuts today, helping to send yields a bit higher. But the bigger picture is that there has been a massive reassessment of the timing... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Large downward shifts in interest rate expectations mean that mortgage rates will continue to fall for the next month or two. That will support some recovery in activity and means that price declines... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Dec. 23) Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will flat-line in Q4. That will help stabilise capital values, but given historically narrow yield spreads... 18th December 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Your questions after the latest central bank meetings We recently held an online Drop-In session to discuss the December policy meetings and the outlook for monetary policy in the year ahead. (See a recording here.) This Update answers several of the... 18th December 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE too hawkish, investors have gone too far the other way We agree with investors that the Bank of England's stance this week was overly hawkish. Even so, we think investors are over-estimating how quickly rates will be cut. Given the UK economy is not as... 15th December 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec. 2023) The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 50.7 in November to 51.7 in December, increased the chances of the economy avoiding a contraction in Q4. But the stickiness of price pressures will... 15th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Takeaways from our Property in 2024 roundtables This week, we held a series of property roundtable discussions with clients in our London office as part of our World in 2024 series. In this Update, we outline our thoughts on the most interesting... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Few signs BoE is starting to contemplate rate cuts The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent soft wage... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (14 Dec. 2023) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent soft wage... 14th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 23) Declining mortgage rates have already generated a significant improvement in demand, with the new buyer enquiries and sales expectations balances recording their strongest readings for over a year and... 13th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth, inflation, and rates to be lower than expected We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as the lagged effects of monetary policy tightening filter through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to... 13th December 2023 · 45 mins read
