UK Economics Weekly Does a £40bn “funding gap” mean £40bn of tax rises? The Chancellor’s £40bn “funding gap” doesn’t mean that the Budget on 30th October will involve £40bn of tax rises. Some of this “funding gap” will probably be paid for with higher borrowing and some... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) September’s 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes was stronger than expected (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m, CE -0.5% m/m) and suggests that while households may be concerned about possible tax rises... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2024 Preview In her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, faces the unenviable task of trying to achieve three objectives. First, being able to say there will be “no return to... 16th October 2024 · 26 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update All signs point to capital value recovery Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate cuts by reducing rates by 25 basis points (bps) at both... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2024) The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to the widespread expectation that the Bank of England will... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Budget jitters The recent falls in business and consumer confidence are undoubtedly due to the prospect of higher taxes in the Budget on 30th October. And the probable boost to demand from more public investment... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
FX GBP likely to fall by more against EUR than USD We expect sterling to weaken by ~4% against the euro and ~1% against the dollar by end-2025. This reflects our view that the Bank of England will loosen monetary policy by more than what investors are... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in August (consensus and Capital Economics 0.2%), which came on the back of the economy failing to grow at all in three of the previous four months, lends support to our view... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Credit conditions still consistent with the economy growing The Bank of England’s Q3 Credit Conditions Survey suggests house prices will rise further in Q4 and supports our view that a mild slowdown in GDP growth this year is more likely than another recession... 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail ‘flight to quality’ limited to shopping centres In contrast to offices, there is less evidence of a ‘flight to quality’ in the overall retail sector. Shopping centres are the exception, where the spread between both prime and non-prime yields, and... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2024) Surge in supply ahead of Budget may temporarily dampen prices A leap in the number of homes being put up for sale in September, perhaps due to fears of second-homes and rented properties being subject... 10th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2024) The third consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in September provides further evidence that the falls in mortgage rates are supporting demand and pushing up house prices. 7th October 2024 · 3 mins read
