UK Economics Update Loan defaults unlikely to hinder economic recovery The lagged effects of the weak economy and high interest rates may mean that loan default rates rise in the coming months. But the prospect of interest rate cuts later this year will mean they won’t... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Are we too downbeat on the economy in 2024? The economic news over the past week has highlighted three upsides to our forecast that the economy will stagnate in 2024. First, the fall in some mortgage rates to below 4% means the effect of future... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property returns to stabilise, if not shine Stubbornly high inflation pushed risk-free rates, and yields, somewhat higher than we had anticipated by the end of 2023. By contrast, rental growth proved surprisingly resilient even as the economy... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Lower interest rates pave the way for a stronger 2024 Our forecast of earlier Bank Rate cuts mean that mortgage rates will be significantly lower than we had anticipated this year, which will lead to a stronger recovery in demand from mortgaged buyers... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Dec.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 45.5 in November to 46.8 in December was driven by the increase in the housing balance, while the commercial reading fell further. Looking ahead, we... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2023) The big 1.1% m/m increase in the Halifax house price index confirms that falls in mortgage rates are translating into renewed increases in house prices. Given further recent falls in mortgage rates... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) The run of softer-than-expected news on CPI inflation and wage growth means we now expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner than before. Our forecast is that rates will be cut from 5.25... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Lending (Nov. 23) The rise in mortgage approvals in November was little surprise given the sharp drop back in mortgage rates since July. Given recent further falls in swap rates, mortgage rates are likely to continue... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Nov. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the ninth consecutive month in November, but that wasn’t reflected in investment volumes which dropped further. But throughout H1 2024 we expect... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Nov. 2023) November’s money and credit data suggest that the recent falls in mortgage rates will stimulate new mortgage borrowing, but many existing mortgage holders will still experience higher rates in the... 4th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update New interest rate forecast – first cut sooner, end destination is 3% In a change to our previous forecast, we now think that the first interest rate cut from the Bank of England will happen in June this year rather than in November. We still think that interest rates... 3rd January 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 23) Unchanged house prices in December ensured that over the course of 2023 they fell by much less than forecasters had expected. With mortgage rates falling, it is increasingly likely that house prices... 29th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2023 in review While we got mortgage rates and lending roughly right in 2023, house prices fell by less than we expected as longer mortgage terms, strong demand from cash buyers, and tight supply came together to... 28th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The good news on inflation should continue in 2024 It is striking that the big fall in UK CPI inflation so far has followed the US closely, albeit with a six month lag. This reflects the fact there have been common drivers of inflation across advanced... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Nov. 2023) The 1.3% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November may have paused the recent retail woes as Black Friday discounting provided retailers with some much needed Christmas cheer. But with higher... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
