UK Economics Update Drag on economic growth from credit starting to fade The Bank of England’s Q4 Credit Conditions Survey suggests the worst of the drag on economic growth from higher interest rates is fading. That suggests an economic recovery will begin later this year. 18th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023) The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec. 23) Market was picking up even before latest slide in mortgage rates The December RICS Housing Market survey showed sales volumes rising and buyer demand recovering even before the further sizeable drop... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2023) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.9% in November to 4.0% in December (consensus and CE forecast 3.8%) is disappointing. But we still expect favourable base effects and a fall in utility... 17th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The hawks are ruling 2024 so far… but not really A hawkish mood has prevailed in markets this year, and comments from the Fed’s Waller today seemed to add fuel to that fire, at least initially. But given how aggressively rate cuts were priced in... 16th January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think sterling has further to fall against the US dollar While sterling has outperformed other G10 currencies amid the dollar sell-off over the past couple of months, we expect it to reverse its gains against the greenback as short-term Gilt yields edge... 16th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2023) Another big drop in wage growth in November supports our view that domestic inflationary pressures are fading fairly fast. But the ongoing tightness of the labour market will probably mean that the... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect yield curves to normalise this year Government bond yield curves in the US, Germany, and the UK seem to be once again on the path towards “normalisation”, or “disinversion”, as short-term yields are close to breaking below long-term... 15th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints 1706799600 We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start.
UK Housing Market Update Scotland & N.I. to outperform, while the South recovers There was a wide disparity in house price growth across regions in 2023 and little reason to think that this year will be any different. Following the recent decline in mortgage rates, we suspect the... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Resilience in business investment won't last We doubt the recent resilience of business investment in the face of higher interest rates will last. We think a drop back in business investment will contribute to the economy continuing to stagnate... 15th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think UK equities will turn the corner in 2024 In contrast to 2023, we expect a strong showing from UK equities this year, helped by a weaker pound and enthusiasm around AI technology. 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK to win the race to get inflation below 2% Even though the next two CPI inflation releases may fuel the narrative that the downward trend in inflation is stalling, we think that inflation in the UK will fall below the 2.0% target in April... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2023) The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.2%) increases the chances that the economy escaped a recession in 2023. And with rates for new mortgages now falling and lower... 12th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Approaching a turning point in construction Note: Following the publication of government statistics on housing construction in Q3 2023 today, we are sending clients a revised version of this Update first published on 11 January. Barring Q2... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Can regional industrial rents outperform? In contrast to most of the past 20 years, RoUK industrial rental growth has almost matched the South East over the past couple of quarters. But that is unlikely to last. The boost to demand for big... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
