UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2023) Having deteriorated for the best part of 2023, sentiment over all-property occupier demand and rents improved in Q4. However, the balances remain negative, pointing to subdued demand and rental growth... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal Headroom Monitor: More room for tax cuts Our new Fiscal Headroom Monitor uses a simplified version of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s model to estimate how changes in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields are influencing... 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Taking the first steps towards rate cuts At the policy meeting on Thursday 1 st February, the Bank of England will probably throw in the towel on the pretence that interest rates could rise further and take the first steps towards cutting... 25th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Residential yields have further to rise The long boom in residential investment has been severely dented by soaring interest rates. Solid fundamentals mean investor interest will remain strong, but it is unlikely residential yields have... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jan. 24) Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will stabilise in the first quarter of 2024. But given historically narrow yield spreads, we doubt we will... 24th January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan. 2024) The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.1 in December to 52.5 in January, suggests that the economy has improved, although any increase in GDP in Q1 will probably be minimal. 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update When one MPC member turns, the herd quickly follows History suggests that when one Monetary Policy Committee member votes to cut interest rates, a majority of the nine members will agree about two meetings later. 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2023) December’s better-than-expected public finances figures brought some cheer for the Chancellor after the recent run of poor outturns and will give him a bit more wiggle room for a big pre-election... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Jan 2024) If we are right to think that the Bank of England will begin lowering interest rates in June, the recent fall in mortgage rates should be sustained. The resulting drop in the cost of borrowing will... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US and UK equities are more alike than it seems US large cap equities have vastly outperformed UK ones over the past year or so, but that is skewed by the performance of the biggest names on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, there is little... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the soft landing in jeopardy? This week’s stronger-than-expected news on inflation and weaker-than expected news on activity doesn’t mean that a soft landing for the economy is no longer the most likely outcome. Instead, there’s... 19th January 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are capital values close to bottoming out? Prices of commercial real estate equities suggest capital values will see a strong recovery in the first few months of 2024. But with no prospect of yield compression and rental growth set to slow, we... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Dec. 2023) The 3.2% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was far worse than expected (consensus forecast -0.5% m/m, CE -1.0% m/m) and suggests that the Black Friday boost to retail sales proved short... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in Gilt yields and sterling may not last Although Gilt yields remain elevated and sterling resilient, we expect both to fall over the course of 2024 as disinflationary pressures build in the UK. 18th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
