UK Commercial Property Update Will commercial property distress spread to the UK? Distress in the US commercial property market is once again in the news, but the risk of that spreading to the UK is low. The rise in aggregate loan-to-value ratios to date looks manageable and with... 6th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI from 46.8 in December to 48.8 in January was driven by improvements in both the housing and commercial readings. (See Chart 1.) While we doubt commercial... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Lower unemployment rate raises risk of later rate cuts The news this morning that the unemployment rate is lower than previously thought increases the chances that interest rate cuts start a little later and are slower. 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing Given the rise in rents and the recent decline in mortgage rates, the financial benefit of buying over renting is increasing. This will boost buyer demand and cause tenant demand to soften this year. 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal splurge won’t prevent summer interest rate cut The IMF was not wrong when it pointed out this week that by offering pre-election tax cuts, the Chancellor is turning a blind eye to the precarious state of the fiscal position. To meet his fiscal... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily It’s about the end, not the start Despite the Bank of England (BoE) following the Fed in pushing back against imminent rate cuts, Gilt and Treasury yields are on track to post big falls today. That partly reflects renewed concerns... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Rate cuts may come sooner than the BoE implies While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent a signal that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back strongly against the idea that rates... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Feb. 2024) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent some soft signals that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back more strongly against the... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Tight real policy stance supports case for big rate cuts The drop in inflation across advanced economies has caused real interest rates to rise by even more than nominal rates. While there are various ways to measure real interest rates, they all confirm... 31st January 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Price Index (Jan. 2024) The larger than expected +0.7% m/m gain in house prices in January (consensus: +0.1%, Capital Economics: +0.4%) reflected improving public sentiment about the economy and the housing market and... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Markets are not braced for how far inflation will fall Our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year suggests that Bank Rate will be cut from 5.25% now to 3.00% rather than the low of 3.50-3.75% priced into the market, 10-year gilt... 30th January 2024 · 10 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Dec. 23) Net lending to commercial property increased for the tenth consecutive month in December, but investment sentiment remained downbeat. Looking ahead, we expect investment to slowly recover over H1 2024... 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Dec. 2023) December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some support to our view that the economic recovery... 30th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Deflation risks may be on the horizon Big falls in the Ofgem utility price cap in April and July could mean that CPI inflation falls from 4.0% in December 2023 to just 0.3% by September. If the chances of inflation hovering only a bit... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
