UK Economics Update The implications of different combos of Prime Minister & President The outlook for the UK economy is unlikely to be very different depending on which of the possible combinations of UK Prime Ministers and US Presidents this year’s elections deliver. Even so, there... 26th February 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tax cuts now imply tax rises after the election Whatever the Chancellor gives away in tax cuts in the Budget, the next government will have to take away in the form of tax hikes after the election. This means any fiscal sugar rush for the economy... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A recovery, but not much of one With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any... 23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Larger mortgages challenge weak house price forecasts The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: UK commercial property’s muted recovery 1709114400 All-property total returns will turn positive in 2024 but we don’t think the recovery will be much to write home about.
Event Drop-In: UK Housing Market Outlook – Rates, sales, prices 1710408600 Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending?
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus 52.9), suggests that the mildest of mild recessions at the end of 2023 may soon be... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finances figures delivered some much-needed good news for the Chancellor in the lead-up to the Budget on 6th March. But we doubt this will pave the way for a very big pre-election... 21st February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2024 Preview – Electioneering beats prudence Using most of the fiscal headroom of about £15bn to cut taxes in the Spring Budget on 6th March would show that the Chancellor is putting the election before prudence. Such tax cuts may help lift the... 20th February 2024 · 21 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Spring Budget 2024 – Jeremy Hunt goes shopping for votes 1709737200 The UK Chancellor may use his 6th March Spring Budget to splash the cash and try to win voter support for the beleaguered Conservative party ahead of an expected electi
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Capital Daily How corporate credit might fare with spreads so low We think that corporate credit spreads will narrow a bit more in the US and Europe. Along with lower “risk-free” rates, this will in our view contribute to pushing yields down this year. 19th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will... 19th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Answering questions from our debt distress Drop-In This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page. This Update... 16th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Soft landing intact as mild recession nearing an end It’s debatable whether the small falls in GDP should be considered a recession, although the decline in GDP per capita has been larger. Either way, timely indicators suggest the economy may be coming... 16th February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jan. 2024) The 3.4% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in January will put an end to the retail recession and perhaps even to the wider economy recession in Q1. The strong pick up in sales suggests the worst is... 16th February 2024 · 2 mins read
