UK Commercial Property Focus

Why this will be the slowest global recovery on record

Relatively high interest rates and structural problems within offices will weigh on the commercial real estate recovery over the next three years. Indeed, we forecast the upturn will be weaker than in...

4th March 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

CRE Drop-In: Unpacking the slowest commercial real estate recovery on record

1710257400

The recovery that we’re forecasting for the US, UK and euro-zone commercial property markets is likely to be the weakest on record.

China, inflation, trade wars – Your frequently asked questions

UK Housing Market Update

The origin of the government’s 300,000 target

We have traced the government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year in England back to the 2004 Barker Review. Rerunning the calculations two decades on suggests 385,000 new homes a year would...

4th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Stickiest part of services inflation may soon worry BoE less

Our view that the Bank of England will become less concerned by the most persistent part of services CPI inflation suggests that it will cut interest rates in the summer, perhaps in June. But the risk...

4th March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Housing leading the economy out of recession

The government’s desperation to close the gap on Labour in the opinion polls means surprisingly big tax cuts shouldn’t be ruled out from the Budget on Wednesday despite the fiscal constraints that...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Price Index (Feb. 2024)

Another sizeable monthly increase in the Nationwide house price index in February confirmed that lower mortgage rates are feeding through to higher prices. But recent increases in interest rate...

1st March 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Markets Chart Pack

UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are...

29th February 2024 · 1 min read

Climate Economics Monthly

Five highlights from February

This Monthly looks at five highlights from the Climate Economics service in February, including the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, and the launch of our coverage of the EU carbon...

29th February 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jan. 24)

29th February 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024)

January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has...

29th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

We think European equities will keep playing catch-up

We expect strong returns from European equities in the next couple of years, but we think they will continue to underperform those in the US.

28th February 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Green premium helps drive refurbishment boom

The latest crane survey reported the highest volume of London office starts on record. In part that reflects a refurbishment boom as developers retrofit their buildings to meet MEES standards and...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse

A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024.

28th February 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

Spring Budget 2024 Checklist

This is an updated checklist which takes into account our latest expectations for the Spring Budget. The checklist helps clients keep track of the key policies and forecasts announced during the...

28th February 2024 · 3 mins read