UK Housing Market Outlook Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the... 15th March 2024 · 18 mins read
BoE Watch Sounding hawkish, but data may soon change the BoE’s tune At the policy meeting on Thursday 21st March, the Bank of England will almost certainly keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row and retain its hawkish guidance. But we... 14th March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 24) The February RICS Residential Market Survey revealed a jump in the supply of homes for sale which, paired with a slight rise in mortgage rates, means that house price gains are likely to stall in the... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Online share developments not all bad news The online share of retail sales is still above its pre-pandemic trend, but a closer look suggests that is perhaps not as bad for the retail sector as it looks. For example, the share of online... 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2024) The news that the economy expanded by 0.2% m/m in January (consensus and CE forecast 0.2% m/m) suggests the UK economy may already have moved out of recession and implies there is some upside to our... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental market continues to contract The more granular detail of mortgage lending in Q4 published by the Bank of England this morning added to the evidence that the Buy-to-Let (BTL) sector is contracting. Meanwhile arrears increased, but... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan. 2024) The easing in wage growth in January is probably still a bit too slow for the Bank of England’s liking. But there are encouraging signs that a more marked slowdown is just around the corner, which... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update April’s rise in minimum wage will keep the BoE on alert We doubt the big rise in the minimum wage in April will prevent wage growth from falling faster this year than the Bank of England has forecast. But the clear risk is that it supports wage growth and... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s inflation forecast looks like an outlier The Office for Budget Responsibility’s big downward revision to its CPI inflation forecast in this week’s Budget brings it more into line with our forecast for inflation to fall below the 2.0% target... 8th March 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have upwardly revised their 2024 expectations, which are now more in line with our view. Stronger rental growth help drive that improvement and... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Feb. 24) The smallest month-on-month increase in house prices since September suggested that the boost to house prices from the decline in mortgage rates since last summer is over. With mortgage rates now... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget – Pre-election boost to turn into post-election drag The net giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may help end the recession before an election later this year. But fiscal policy is still being tightened in 2024/25 and that... 6th March 2024 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily UK fiscal fictions unlikely to prevent lower Gilt yields Today’s UK budget announcement contained no major surprises, leaving our forecast for the 10-year Gilt yield to fall further this year and sterling to struggle against other major currencies intact. 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Spring Budget 2024 The net fiscal giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may at the margin help lift the economy out of its mild recession before an election later this year. But a big tightening in... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
