UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Rise in job vacancies a bigger worry than fall in employment As the plunge in employment in Q1 is probably a response to the recession last year, employment will probably soon rebound now that the economy is growing again. The real risk is a rebound in job... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp fall in employment and the jump in the unemployment rate in February suggest that wage growth will continue to slow even though the pace of decline appears to have eased. As long as that’s... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The risks to inflation posed by energy prices Our analysis shows that for CPI inflation to get stuck above 2.0% it would require oil prices and UK wholesale gas prices to rise to $110 per barrel and 150 pence per therm respectively. And for CPI... 15th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Bernanke puts the boot in, but BoE won’t project interest rates Ben Bernanke didn’t pull any punches in his review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications and recommended a full revamp of the Bank’s main forecasting model, using alternative... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK heading for a US-style stalling in inflation? There are no obvious signs that the UK will follow in the US’s footsteps and that the downward trend in UK inflation will soon stall. But the risks are tilted towards inflation proving stickier and... 12th April 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Bernanke Review of BoE Forecasting (Apr. 2024) Our initial impression of the changes to the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications recommended by Ben Bernanke is that they would go a long way to helping the Bank generate more accurate... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the investment recovery be delayed? After a positive end to 2023 commercial property investment has since lost momentum, not helped by a rebound in interest rates. But we still think interest rates will fall back this year and, while... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2024) The 0.1% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus and CE +0.1%) and the upward revision to the gain in January from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% m/m all-but confirms the recession ended in Q4. But while we expect a... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2024) Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Residential will continue to outperform Residential has taken an increasing share of the professional investment universe over the last decade or more and we will be adding the sector to our next set of UK commercial property forecasts. Our... 11th April 2024 · 18 mins read