UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Mar. 24)

30th April 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Mar. 2024)

March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is starting to fade, which supports our view that activity rebounded in Q1. And our forecast for...

30th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

UK Drop-In: How the Bank of England will respond to UK inflation’s rapid retreat

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Despite global panic about the DM inflation outlook, we still think that price pressures in the UK are set to fade faster than most assume, opening the way for the Bank of Eng

US Commercial Property Update

Share of remote work key to global office performance

The wide divergence in global office market performance to-date has been driven by significant differences in the return to office and the impact that has had on occupiers’ leasing decisions. US...

29th April 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Markets Outlook

Markets overdo higher for longer narrative

While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK...

29th April 2024 · 10 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Stock market rally only a small support for consumers

Our equity and house price forecasts imply household net wealth will rise significantly over the next three years. Even so, we estimate that household net wealth as a share of disposable incomes will...

26th April 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Residential rental growth to outperform

The Q1 RICS commercial survey provided further evidence that occupier demand has turned the corner, with demand ticking up in the industrial and office sectors. But with availability still elevated...

25th April 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Looser labour market may reduce foreign-born employment

Foreign-born workers have been entirely responsible for the post-pandemic recovery in employment. But a gradual rise in labour market participation and a moderation in net migration may mean the share...

25th April 2024 · 5 mins read

London Housing Markets Chart Pack

London Housing Chart Pack (Q2 2024)

House price growth in London remains negative according to the ONS, but timelier measures of house prices and sentiment suggest that activity has picked up and prices are regaining momentum. The...

25th April 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Apr. 24)

All-property yields have been broadly stable since the start of the year. Higher-than-expected interest rates mean yields may see a further small rise over the next few months, but we still think they...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

European corporate bond yields could fall further

We expect corporate bond yields in the UK and euro-zone to fall as rate cuts in those economies push down risk-free rates and strong risk sentiment narrows spreads further.

23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Update

Fiscal Headroom Monitor: Limited scope for tax cuts

If sustained, the recent rises in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields may mean that the Chancellor has only around £5bn of fiscal headroom, down from £8.9bn in the March Budget, with...

23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr. 2024)

Although the unexpected rise in the composite activity PMI in April suggests the economy grew faster at the start of Q2, the more marked fall in the services output prices balance may make the Bank of...

23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Mar. 2024)

March’s public finances figures show that public borrowing in 2023/24 came in £6.6bn higher than the OBR predicted only a month ago, casting further doubt on the ability of the government to unveil...

23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Multifamily rents set to outperform

New more granular MSCI data shows that the outperformance of residential property over the past decade was primarily down to student housing. Indeed, only in the past couple of years have multifamily...

22nd April 2024 · 3 mins read