UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to a two-year high of 54.7 in May. Both the commercial and housing balances improved, with the latter rising above 50 for the first time since October 2022... 6th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Which taxes could rise after the election? Whoever wins the general election on 4th July will have three main choices when it comes to spending and taxes. First, the new government could change the fiscal rules to give itself more fiscal space... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will delays to rate cuts hit capital values? Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields... 4th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority? With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to commercial property (Apr. 24) Following two consecutive quarters of declines, net lending to property reached £891m in April. But looking through the monthly volatility, net lending totalled just £692m over the past three months... 31st May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2024) While April’s money and lending figures suggest the recent rebound in the housing market is cooling and households reined in their spending in April, there was further evidence that the drag on... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2024) Despite a small increase in the Nationwide house price index in May, the big picture is that the slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stagnate. 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Residential outperforms within a modest recovery Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total... 30th May 2024 · 27 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) The stickiness of inflation in April has led us to shift back our forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut from 5.25% from June to August. Even so, our view that CPI inflation will fall... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (May 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed limited change on the previous forecast round in March. There was a small upward revision to all-property rental growth expectations for 2024, but a downgrade to... 29th May 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2024) The tick up in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused demand to soften. As a result, house prices are likely to tread water over the coming months. But our forecast that Bank Rate will... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK? While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes... 28th May 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidates as yields edge higher across the board The dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, halting its slide over the past couple of weeks. Bond yields in the US rebounded this week, partly due to the Fed... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economic tailwind for the election winner While the economic data released between now and the general election on 4 th July is unlikely to have a big influence on the result, further falls in inflation, interest rates and gilt yields may... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Apr. 2024) The 2.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in April was much bigger than our forecast for a 0.5% m/m fall and the consensus forecast for a 0.4% m/m decline as the unusually wet weather discouraging... 24th May 2024 · 3 mins read
