UK Economics Weekly How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of... 14th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The General Election results – The morning after and the macro/markets outlook 1720168200 Will the outcome of the UK general election move the dial on the UK economic outlook? How much would a Labour government deviate from Conservative economic policy?
BoE Watch BoE not ready to follow in the ECB’s footsteps…yet Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 20th June will be any clues on how soon and how far rates will be cut. If inflation... 13th June 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office starts spell trouble for non-prime space The latest Crane Survey reported that a record high 16.4m sq. ft. of London office space was under construction in Q1. That in part reflects developers delaying projects until the demand outlook... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto? While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK Equities may underperform regardless of the election We doubt the outcome of the UK’s general election will have a big impact on UK equities in general. Nonetheless, we still expect them to continue to underperform US equities. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2024) Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy? The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and... 12th June 2024 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Apr. 2024) The stagnation in GDP in April (consensus 0.0%, CE -0.1%) doesn’t mean the economic recovery has been extinguished, but it’s hardly great news for the Prime Minister three weeks ahead of the election. 12th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024) The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The disconnect between the tax and spending plans While both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have been talking a good game on tax, there is a big disconnect between their desire to keep tax low and their plans to increase spending. In a... 7th June 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (May 2024) The slight decline in the Halifax house price index in May confirmed that the increase in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused house prices to stall. Mortgage rates have continued to... 7th June 2024 · 3 mins read
