UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably... 27th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why are residential yields so low? Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Next government to benefit from economic tailwind The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth... 25th June 2024 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key economic implications of a Labour govt Since Labour’s fiscal plans are very similar to the current government’s and as Labour is unlikely to deviate from its manifesto quickly, we doubt we will be ripping up our economic forecasts on Day 1... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Why we think yield compression will be limited With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun. 2024) June’s composite PMI suggests the economic recovery lost a bit of momentum towards the end of the second quarter. And after two stronger-than-expected inflation prints for April and May, the renewed... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2024) The larger-than-expected increase in retail sales in May more than reversed the rain-driven weakness in April. And with inflation falling back to target, Bank Rate likely to be reduced soon and... 21st June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (May 2024) May’s public finances figures delivered some better news on the fiscal position after the recent run of worse-than-expected outturns. However, they do little to reduce the fiscal constraints that will... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves? The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE may cut rates in August, but rates may reach 3.00% later The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. This lends some... 20th June 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024) 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jun. 24) Capital values are close to bottoming out in most sectors as yields have stabilised. However, with no yield compression and moderating rental growth the recovery will be weak by past standards, not... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (May 2024) The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Fiscal constraints working against the green transition The tightening of fiscal constraints is putting pressure on politicians to pare back green investment ambitions. But kicking the fiscal can down the road on measures that could accelerate the green... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
