UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s 0.2% m/m rise in Halifax house prices suggests that the recent momentum in house prices has a bit further to run. And while the recent rises in swap rates suggest mortgage rates will soon... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are... 6th November 2024 · 14 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Oct. 24) After a strong September the headline CIPS construction PMI dropped back to 54.3 in October, although that still points to an expansion of construction activity. 6th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where will interest rates trough and why? We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is this Liz Truss 2.0? The market fallout from Wednesday’s Budget is a long way from the 2022 mini-budget episode. While we can’t completely rule out the possibility of rapid rises in gilt yields triggering a self... 1st November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices was a bit weaker than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) and suggests that the recent falls in mortgage rates may be providing... 1st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities How worrying is the surge in Gilt yields? While the market fallout from yesterday’s UK budget announcement is still a very long way from the 2022 “mini-budget” debacle, the surge in Gilt yields and fall in sterling over the past couple of... 31st October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Budget not a game-changer for the housing market The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside... 31st October 2024 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker? The Bank of England will almost certainly cut interest rates for the second time in this cycle, from 5.00% to 4.75%, at the meeting on Thursday 7th November. But it is unlikely to hint that it intends... 31st October 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the Budget derailed the CRE recovery? We doubt the sell-off in gilts following the Budget will gather momentum and cause another step down in commercial property values. However, given the current narrow spread between risk-free interest... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of today’s sell-off in Gilts The sell-off in the Gilt market after today’s budget announcement in the UK probably reflects concerns that the Chancellor’s fiscal plans will result in an increased a supply of bonds and less... 30th October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Big tax rises, but economy may end up stronger This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Despite large rise in taxes, Budget still boosts economy This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
