Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan latest IMF deal, CBSL on hold The loan deal that was confirmed this week between the IMF and Pakistan envisages a further sharp tightening of fiscal policy. This drag from fiscal policy is the main reason why we think GDP growth... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Update Notes from LSE Environment Week Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to gather pace We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fed easing, SBP rate cut, BoK’s dovish minutes Bank Indonesia tends to place a lot of weight on US Federal Reserve decisions because of its mandate to ensure currency stability. We think a cut by the Fed on Wednesday will give the green light for... 13th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public... 14th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Will any other central banks hike interest rates? We are not expecting any other central banks in the region to follow Bank Indonesia and hike interest rates to support their currencies. However, one central bank worth monitoring is the State Bank of... 26th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign default risks still high in a few places The incidence of sovereign debt distress has continued to decline across the emerging world in recent weeks, driven mainly by an improvement in global risk appetite and the corresponding narrowing of... 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Asian central banks waiting for the Fed With inflation easing and domestic demand struggling in much of emerging Asia, central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates soon. The one remaining concern for policymakers is the fear of... 27th March 2024 · 27 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: election result bad news for the economy Pakistan’s general election has thrown the country’s political scene into turmoil, with no party emerging with a majority from Thursday’s poll. A hung parliament may complicate the country’s upcoming... 9th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier sovereign debt distress still high While the overall incidence of sovereign debt distress in the emerging world has fallen back since last year, sovereign debt distress in frontier markets hasn’t. And, if anything, things have taken a... 7th February 2024 · 3 mins read
