India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI in February is another sign that the most severe impact on activity from demonetisation has passed. Looking ahead, manufacturers should continue to recover over... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Official GDP data showing only a gradual slowdown in Indian growth in Q4 is hard to square with other more reliable monthly data which show activity slowed sharply towards the end of last year... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jan.) The latest import data out of China and India show weak demand for gold in the two largest consumers. While China’s data could be distorted by the timing of the New Year, in India the liquidity crunch... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The importance of state elections The raft of state elections currently taking place in India is likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But more significant, the outcome of the state elections – in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core inflation rises to highest rate since 2014 The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep rates on hold and signal the end of its loosening cycle in this month’s policy meeting took many by surprise. But subsequent data showing that core... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond yields jump after RBI surprises markets Indian bond yields have risen since the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets in early February by keeping rates on hold and signalling the end of its loosening cycle. Looking ahead, yields are... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export rebound continues Trade data for January show that export values continued to recover last month. Looking ahead, export growth should remain positive, but the government’s long-term target still looks out of reach... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The sharp rise in Indian wholesale price inflation last month supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest rates much sooner than is generally... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer price inflation dropped in January as price discounting continued following demonetisation. But inflationary pressures are set to build over the coming months, and we continue to believe that... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production growth turned negative again in December. Demonetisation probably played a role in the slowdown, but it is also the case that November’s faster growth was mostly due to one-off... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI brings loosening cycle to an end The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to keep interest rates on hold today was in line with our non-consensus forecast and it signals the end of the loosening cycle. Looking ahead, with... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold demand to remain subdued in 2017 Demand for gold in the two main consumers – China and India – plummeted in 2016 on a combination of higher prices, increased regulation in India and lower appetite for gold jewellery in China. Looking... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a done deal Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting next week. But, despite the continued damage and uncertainty caused by... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY17/18 budget: slower pace of consolidation The finance ministry faced a delicate balancing act in today’s budget announcement for FY17/18 as it aimed to boost demand while also demonstrating its commitment to fiscal prudence. Given this, it is... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI in January is an early sign that the worst of the impact on activity from demonetisation may be over. Looking ahead, local manufacturers should gradually recover... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget preview: a tricky balancing act The finance ministry faces a delicate balancing act in the upcoming union budget for FY17/18, which will be unveiled on 1st February. On the one hand, it will be aiming to boost demand following... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
