RBI Watch RBI may have to tighten soon In light of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signalling the end of the loosening cycle in its most recent policy meeting in February, most analysts are now expecting the central bank to keep rates on... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Feb.) The latest import data from China and India show a mixed picture of gold demand in the two largest consumers. While China’s demand has started the new year on a soft note, an easing of the liquidity... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data suggest low external vulnerabilities While there was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q4, the more important point is that the external shortfall remains small. Given also that FDI inflows remain strong, the... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Sensex closes in on record high Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, and the Sensex is now within touching distance of its all-time high. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM equity markets... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia will not follow the Fed’s lead For most economies in Emerging Asia it will be local factors, not the actions of the US Federal Reserve, which will determine the next moves by the region’s central banks. 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade position continues to improve India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed to a six-month low in February. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold and oil likely to stay subdued by past standards, the trade deficit... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update “Bad bank” alone would have limited impact The creation of a “bad bank” in India would help restructure the loans of India’s most heavily-indebted firms and should facilitate a clean-up of the balance sheets of commercial banks. But the... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation accelerated in February for the first time since demonetisation due mainly to a rebound in food inflation. Looking ahead, rising price pressures could prompt the RBI to hike... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) The rise in Indian wholesale price inflation in February to its highest rate in over three years supports our view that the Reserve Bank of India will have to reverse course and begin hiking interest... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP victory in Uttar Pradesh brightens reform prospects The landslide victory for Prime Minister Modi and the BJP in the Uttar Pradesh state assembly election suggests that political goodwill towards the ruling national party remains intact, and boosts... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) We wouldn’t make too much of January’s rebound in industrial production. This is, after all, a volatile series. But it supports other evidence that the impact of demonetisation has started to wane. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to rise for first time since demonetisation Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in February for the first time since demonetisation, due to a pick-up in food inflation. Looking ahead, rising core inflation could prompt the RBI to... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is a Universal Basic Income feasible? The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention in recent weeks. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Poised for a resurgence? The government’s demonetisation measures have caused growth in India to slow but the economy is set to recover as consumption and investment rebound. Longer-term prospects have also been boosted as... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
