India Economics Update Drop in inflation in April to prove temporary Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased a touch in April, due in large part to a drop in fuel inflation. But this is likely to prove temporary. Further ahead, rising core price pressures... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI held steady at a multi-month high in April, supporting our view that the economy is on a firmer footing after the hit to activity from demonetisation. Looking ahead... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The release of an Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of a “normal” monsoon this year has led to a rush of commentary on the potential economic impact. But the early forecasts are prone to... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Mar.) The latest trade data show a sharp rise in gold imports in China and India in March. While demand in India picked up ahead of the Akshaya Tritiya festival, Chinese buyers probably took advantage of... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Sensex rises to record highs Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early April. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee surges to 20-month high The rally in the Indian rupee since the start of 2017 has continued in recent weeks, driving the currency to its highest rate against the US dollar in almost two years. While we doubt that the rally... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Farmer loan waivers a cause for concern The recent approval of a bailout package for indebted farmers in Uttar Pradesh fulfils an election pledge from the BJP, but should also raise concern. The unconditional debt write-off could set a... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much of a threat is the rise in gold imports? The jump in gold imports over the past couple of months is likely to have been boosted by temporary factors, including a rebound in purchases following demonetisation and greater consumer demand ahead... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Indian wholesale price inflation edged down in March, but the bigger picture is that it remains close to its highest rate in three years, and that price pressures are still elevated. 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) Consumer price inflation rose again in March, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Further ahead, rising core price pressures could prompt the RBI to follow up last week’s hike to the... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Stronger exports to boost growth in 2017 Buoyant global demand should help to support growth across most of Emerging Asia over the coming quarters, but mounting domestic headwinds mean a strong rebound is not on the cards. Although the... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows should remain strong Remittance inflows are an important source of external funding for India, and were equivalent to more than 3% of GDP in 2016 – almost twice as large as net capital inflows. Though there are some risks... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rising inflation could prompt repo rate hike Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen again in March, due in large part to another acceleration in food inflation. Further ahead, rising core price pressures could prompt the RBI to follow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI shifts towards tighter policy The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) opted to keep its benchmark repo rate on hold today, but the hike to the reverse repo rate represents a shift towards tighter monetary policy. Looking ahead, with... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI in March is another sign that the economy is on a firmer footing after the hit to activity from demonetisation. Looking ahead, manufacturers should continue to... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lessons from Rajasthan’s reforms Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s term in office so far. However, there are signs of improvement at state level, most... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
