India Economics Update Political strength puts onus on PM Modi to step up on reform Recent developments have strengthened the ruling BJP’s hand in the Rajya Sabha (the upper house of parliament). This should help to ease the passage of economic reforms, provided that Prime Minister... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI rate cut to be followed by prolonged hold The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) went with consensus expectations in cutting its repo rate by 25bp to 6.00% today. But it also acknowledged that inflation would soon be rising again. As such, further... 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) July’s PMI reading suggests that India’s manufacturing sector weakened at the start of Q3 amid the near-term disruption caused by the rollout of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST). 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Is the corporate bond market being stifled? Recent regulatory changes to India’s offshore rupee (so-called “masala”) bond market have led to concerns that its growth will be stifled, but these seem overdone. Over the longer term, the market is... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a foregone conclusion Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting next week. But the RBI has developed a taste for springing surprises recently... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold imports (Jun.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports rose in June. Nonetheless, we think that demand will lose momentum in the second half of the year as slower growth in China and a new... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A closer look at the services sector India’s GDP data for Q2 are due to be released at the end of August. We, and many others, remain sceptical about the accuracy of the national accounts data, making it important to track alternative... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.5% y/y rise in global steel production in the first half of 2017, which compares favourably with the 0.8% rise in 2016. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market takes RBI intervention in its stride The bond market has taken the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) surprise announcement of increased open market sales of government securities in its stride, with yields on local-currency debt remaining... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade position remains comfortable India’s trade deficit retreated in June from a 30-month high in May. With imports of key commodities such as oil and gold likely to stay in check, the overall trade deficit should remain at a... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth to slow, but not collapse EM export growth ticked up in May, but the big picture is that the sharp acceleration caused by the rebound in global commodity prices over the past year or so is now behind us. We don’t expect EM... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in June will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) The further drop in Indian consumer price inflation in June will increase the clamour for policy loosening. But with inflation now close to bottoming out, we still expect rates to stay on hold over... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Food and fuel inflation likely to drop again Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased again in June, due in large part to another drop in food and fuel inflation. But inflation is close to bottoming out, and is likely to begin rising... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook How long will the recovery last? A pick-up in exports will lift growth in Emerging Asia to a five-year high in 2017, but mounting domestic headwinds means that this is unlikely to be sustained. We expect growth to slow in 201819... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
