India Economics Update Has demonetisation been a complete failure? On the face of it, demonetisation has been an abject failure given its lack of success in rooting out illicit wealth while also causing growth to slow sharply. But demonetisation is likely to have... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to rise again Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated further in August, due in large part to a sharp jump in vegetable price inflation. Core price pressures are also building, meaning there is no... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in August should soothe some of the concerns raised by yesterday’s weak GDP data and also suggests that the disruption caused by the introduction of the Goods... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) It is tempting to pin the weakness of India’s Q2 GDP data on disruption ahead of the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax. If anything though, this might have been expected to boost spending –... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Jul.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports started Q3 on a soft note. We think that demand will continue to weaken in the remainder of the year as slower growth in China and a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Will the strength of the rupee be sustained? Strong inflows into India’s equity and bond markets have been a key reason behind the strengthening of the rupee against the US dollar in recent months. But there are reasons to think that these... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank lending to remain weak The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25bp earlier this month, and subsequently called upon commercial banks to pass on the cut to borrowers. But the move is likely to have a negligible... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in bond yields has further to run The rise in Indian bond yields over the past couple of weeks reverses only a small portion of the drop since the start of 2017. But looking ahead, with the RBI ramping up its open market sales and... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank’s MPC minutes show inflation concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) August policy meeting show that, despite voting to cut interest rates, most members remain cautious about the outlook for inflation. Indeed, with... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed in July, and a number of factors should ensure that it remains in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets relatively secure in... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated in July, and we think that it will rise further over the coming months. As such, further monetary policy loosening looks unlikely. 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose in July, and looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. As such, we think that there is no scope for further monetary loosening. 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production data show that growth in the sector weakened on the eve of the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The transition to the new tax is likely to continue to... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Central government fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early part of this fiscal year is a common occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in the latter months. Even so, there are a... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in food inflation comes to an end We think that consumer price inflation in India held steady in July, as the recent sharp drop in food inflation appears to have come to an end. Further ahead, we agree with the RBI’s view that... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
