India Economics Update Gujarat election an important bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming votes in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) India’s manufacturing PMI slipped in October, following the trend across most of Asia. However, we doubt that this marks the start of a sharp downturn. In fact, over the near term at least, prospects... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The October PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost some momentum at the start of Q4. The headline readings for Korea and Taiwan – the two economies where the PMIs... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bank recapitalisation a rare success in faltering reforms The bank recapitalisation package unveiled last week and the rise in India’s ranking in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business survey announced today have bolstered Mr Modi’s reform credentials. But... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Time to switch to a producer price index A recent study from a government-appointed working group has reignited the debate over whether India should switch to a producer price index (PPI) to measure inflation at the early stages of the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s budget won’t be a giveaway bonanza While Malaysia has made good progress in bringing down its budget deficit, there remains limited room for a pre-election giveaway in the 2018 budget, which is due to be announced on 27th October... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Initial thoughts on the recapitalisation package A large-scale recapitalisation plan announced yesterday by the government is the most significant measure yet to deal with India’s banking sector malaise. That said, the package will come at a fiscal... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early stages of the fiscal year is a regular occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in latter months. Nevertheless, there are... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Further rupee weakness likely The Indian rupee has depreciated over the past few weeks, and recently dropped to a six-month low against the US dollar. Looking ahead, the currency could weaken a little more. But India’s reasonably... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight inflation and fiscal worries The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) October policy meeting reveal that most members expressed caution about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with inflation... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) Wholesale price inflation unexpectedly eased in September. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation accelerated further last month. With reasons... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade position will remain comfortable India’s trade deficit narrowed to a seven-month low in September. Looking ahead, there are several reasons to think that it will stay in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) While headline consumer price inflation was unchanged last month, core inflation rose again. Policymakers will put less weight on the erratic industrial production data that were also released today... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Calculating the potential fiscal cost of loan waivers Announcements of debt write-offs for farmers in a number of Indian states in recent months have grabbed the headlines. In this Update, we attempt to calculate the fiscal cost of the announced waivers... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST gets political A number of recent tweaks to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) appear to be attempts to shore up support for the BJP ahead of the upcoming state in election in Gujarat rather than attempts to... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India’s gold demand to remain soft The Indian government’s decision to reverse an order that brought the gem & jewellery sector under anti-money laundering legislation is certainly good news for the gold industry. That said, demand is... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
