India Economics Update FDI measures to have limited success Historically, a low level of foreign investment has been one factor constraining the productive potential of India’s economy. The Modi government has made some progress in addressing this. But FDI... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of rising oil prices High global oil prices have in the past contributed to worryingly-large current account deficits in India but prices would have to rise much higher than they have recently for that to return as a risk... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to accelerate again We think that consumer price inflation rose again in December, due to an acceleration in both food and fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build, which could prompt the Reserve... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) India’s manufacturing PMI rose again in December. The reading is now at its highest since December 2012, and prospects for local manufacturers look bright over the near term. 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The December PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors remained in good health. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, Taiwan’s... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes express inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) December policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with consumer... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2018 In our final Watch of this year, we outline the prospects for India’s economy in 2018. We expect growth to accelerate, due to a pick-up in private consumption as well as looser fiscal policy. However... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to narrow further After reaching a three-year high in October, India’s trade deficit narrowed a touch in November. The shortfall is likely to narrow further over the coming months. Exports should continue to rebound... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Wholesale price inflation rose to an eight-month high in November. Policymakers put less weight on the WPI measure, but it nevertheless supports our view that the debate will shift towards monetary... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a slight widening in India’s current account deficit in Q3 over a four-quarter sum, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains small. In addition, FDI inflows remain... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from markets in 2018 Indian financial markets have had a mixed year in 2017. Equities have surged and the rupee has strengthened a touch, but bonds have sold off. Looking ahead to 2018, we think that equities are unlikely... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated to a 15-month high in November, and looks set to rise further over the coming months. Monetary policy is likely to stay on hold in the very near term, but... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Are India’s banks in the clear? The recapitalisation package recently announced by the government is the most significant measure yet to tidy up India’s beleaguered banking system and should all but enable India’s banks to meet... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rise in inflation has further to run We think that consumer price inflation rose again in November, due to an acceleration in both food and fuel inflation. With core price pressures also continuing to build, the Reserve Bank may have to... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, debate may soon shift to tightening The RBI kept its repo rate on hold at 6.00% today, defying calls from prominent members of the government for further rate cuts. In fact, with core price pressures building, we think the debate may... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
