India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) The slight easing of consumer price inflation in January was due to a decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation remained elevated and is set to rise further. We remain comfortable with our... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reserve Bank is right to turn more hawkish Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated again in January, due to another rise in food inflation. But core price pressures are also continuing to build. This was acknowledged by the RBI... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI turns more hawkish The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise but it sounded notably more hawkish in the policy statement. This supports our non-consensus view that rate hikes are likely... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does India’s budget mean for gold? India’s budget for FY18/19, released yesterday, was a mixed bag for gold. On the one hand, incomeboosting measures for the rural population are good news for jewellery demand. On the other hand, the... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Debate will soon turn to tightening We are in agreement with financial market and analyst expectations that rates will be left on hold at the upcoming policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday 7th February. However... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY18/19 budget: fiscal deficit targets relaxed The finance ministry faced a tricky balancing act in today’s budget announcement for FY18/19 as it aimed to shore up popular support ahead of a busy 18 months of elections while also demonstrating... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI slipped in January from December’s five-year high. But the reading is still strong, and prospects for local manufacturers look relatively bright over the near term. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs for January suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors gained momentum at the start of 2018. Encouragingly, the headline readings for Taiwan and Korea – the two economies where... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Economy becoming increasingly formalised A key theme running through the government’s latest Economic Survey is the growing numbers of workers and firms being brought into the formal economy, and so subject to taxation and closer regulatory... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget preview: deficit targets under pressure The finance ministry faces a delicate balancing act in the upcoming union budget for FY18/19, which will be unveiled on 1st February. On the one hand, it will be under pressure to loosen policy ahead... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Industry hits a sweet spot The latest data suggest that India’s industrial sector has strengthened significantly in recent months, underlining that any disruption from the introduction of the GST in mid-2017 was short-lived... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A mixed start to the year Indian financial markets have had a mixed start to the year with equities surging, the rupee remaining stable against the US dollar, and bonds continuing to sell-off. Looking ahead, we think that... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government likely to miss fiscal deficit target India’s fiscal deficit has overshot the central government target so far in FY17/18. This doesn’t necessarily signal that the target will be missed – revenues tend to get ramped up in the final months... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Time to worry about the trade deficit? India’s trade deficit widened to a three-year high in December, but we don’t think this is cause for major concern just yet. Exports should rebound following disruptions related to the GST, while... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Headline wholesale price inflation edged down in December. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose last month. With reasons to think that... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The latest acceleration in consumer price inflation underlines our view that markets have been underestimating the likelihood of policy rate hikes in India this year. 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
