India Economics Update Should we be worried about capital flows? A drop in foreign direct investment inflows and a pick-up in portfolio inflows into India has led to concerns that the economy is once again becoming vulnerable to a sudden halt in foreign financing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit stabilises as protectionist clouds gather India is one of many economies facing a more protectionist stance from the US. Its dependence on exports to the US is low though, an inadvertent positive stemming from its failure to develop a world... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Feb.) Headline wholesale price inflation edged down in February. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose accelerated month. With reasons to... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update PNB scandal highlights need for governance reforms The fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank, India’s second largest state-owned bank, is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector, including the recapitalisation package... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Industrial Production (Jan.) The drop in consumer price inflation in February was due to another decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation remains high and could well rise further. As such, we remain comfortable with our... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in headline inflation to prove temporary Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in February, due to a drop in food and fuel inflation. But core price pressures are still building. We think this will ultimately prompt the Reserve... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Is India finally coming of age? Talk of India’s potential to become the “next China” is inevitable given their enormous populations, and will intensify as China’s economy slows. Those hoping that India can match China’s former rates... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in February. But the reading is still strong, and prospects for local manufacturers look relatively bright over the near term. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Today’s national accounts data show that India’s GDP growth accelerated to a five-quarter high in Q4 2017. The data are much-maligned, but the broad trajectory of a pick-up in growth seems reasonable... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Jan.) The latest trade data for India and China were a mixed bag. On the one hand, China’s gold imports bounced back, pointing to strong demand ahead of the New Year holiday. On the other hand, India’s... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections come into focus Prime Minister Modi is facing his busiest year of state elections in 2018. Elections that are due to take place this year will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and will... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Local markets unable to escape global rout Indian financial markets have not been able to escape the recent turmoil in global markets, with equities dropping sharply and the rupee weakening against the US dollar. Looking ahead, we expect... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes reiterate inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) February policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with core... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit unlikely to widen much further India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level since the taper tantrum in January. But we don’t think this is reason to panic just yet. Exports should rebound following disruptions related... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in January, but stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation rose last month. With reasons to think that core... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
