India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight upside risks to inflation The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s April policy meeting show that, despite the recent drop in headline inflation, the MPC is still concerned about the upside risks to the outlook. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans facing turbulence The government has set an ambitious privatisation target for FY18/19, emboldened by exceeding target last year. But meeting this year’s target is dependent on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Headline wholesale price inflation held steady in March. But with core price pressures still elevated, we remain comfortable with our view that policy rate hikes are likely later this year. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External deficit in check amid rising trade tensions India’s trade deficit widened in March, but we think it will still remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) The slight drop in consumer price inflation in March was due to another decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation picked up and is likely to accelerate further. As such, we remain comfortable... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India unlikely to be labelled “currency manipulator” India has not been spared the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US, with the most notable action so far being the challenge to India’s use of export subsidies at the WTO. However... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More needed to expand corporate bond market A bigger corporate bond market in India could reduce local firms’ heavy reliance on bank loans to obtain funding and improve the pricing of risk, which would have knock-on benefits for the banking... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon Early forecasts of “average” levels of rainfall during this year’s monsoon have led to a rush of speculation on the potential economic impact. But the early forecasts are prone to revision and, in any... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Core inflation to remain elevated Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in February, due to a further drop in food inflation. But core price pressures are still building. We think this will ultimately prompt the Reserve... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, but tighter policy on the horizon The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will prompt the central bank to raise interest rates in... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in March, following the trend across most of Asia. But we doubt this marks the start of a sharp downturn. In fact, over the near term at least, prospects for local... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy tightening on the horizon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) looks set to keep its policy rates on hold at the meeting that ends on Thursday 5th April. But we think that elevated core inflation and looser fiscal policy will... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Prospects for the rural economy are bright After taking a significant hit in the aftermath of demonetisation in late 2016, India’s rural economy has regained momentum in recent months. Future prospects for the rural economy look bright, in... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Feb.) The latest trade data for India and China showed divergent trends in the two largest consumers. On the one hand, China’s gold imports remained robust although underlying demand appears to have... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Export subsidies to remain in place for some time There has been much focus over the past month on the shift towards greater trade protectionism by the US, and yet arguably the most significant development from India’s perspective was the action by... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Equities likely to fall further Indian equities have continued to drop so far in March, even as many other major stock markets have stabilised after the turbulence in February. Looking ahead, we expect Indian equities to fall a bit... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
