India Chart Pack BJP still in strong position despite Karnataka setback The BJP’s failure to form a coalition despite winning by far the most seats in the Karnataka state election is a setback for the ruling national party, with the main opposition Congress and the local... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update No need to panic about the rupee The slide in the rupee since the start of the year has raised concerns in some quarters over a repeat of the “Taper Tantrum”, which began five years ago today. But this seems unlikely. The external... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s goods trade deficit held steady in April, and we think it will remain comfortable over the coming months despite the recent ramping up of trade-related attacks by the US. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BJP election surge in Karnataka boosts reform prospects A strong showing in the Karnataka state election suggests that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP retains significant goodwill among the electorate. Mr Modi’s record to date suggests that he will continue to... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) In the context of the hawkish tone of the RBI’s latest policy minutes, the large jump in core CPI inflation last month paves the way for a rate hike at the central bank’s next policy meeting in June. 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in April nevertheless supports our view that policy tightening is likely this year. A... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) Indian industrial production growth slowed in March, but the rate of growth is still reasonably healthy and the sector appears to have performed well across Q1 as a whole. Looking ahead, prospects for... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the fiscal cost of loan waivers The trend of political parties in India promising loans waivers to farmers ahead of state elections seems increasingly well entrenched. As a result, the fiscal costs are continuing to mount. We... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to resume accelerating Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core price pressures are also continuing to build. We are one of only a handful of forecasters... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Karnataka election a key bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming vote in Karnataka can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a convincing... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged up in April, suggesting that the sector strengthened a touch at the start of Q2. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers look relatively bright over the near... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India still well short of universal electricity access The government announced over the weekend that it has successfully managed to electrify all villages in India, meeting its deadline of 1st May 2018 that it set three years ago. But in reality, a large... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Remittance inflows to remain strong Remittance inflows are an important source of external funding for India, and were equivalent to 3% of GDP in 2017 – larger than FDI and portfolio inflows combined. Though there are some risks... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) The latest trade data for India and China showed that imports of gold in the two largest consumers weakened in March. Higher prices probably discouraged purchases. We had warned that this could happen... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update A see-saw month for the bond market Over the past month, there have been significant gyrations in India’s bond market. A drop in yields in the first half of April has been followed by a sharp jump more recently, exacerbated by a hawkish... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
