India Economics Focus Inflation rise tests the RBI's credibility A sharp rise in inflation over recent months, and a jump in household inflation expectations, has raised concerns that the RBI has fallen behind the curve and is squandering its hard-won inflation... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (May) The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports rose strongly in May on the back of robust wholesale consumption... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures continue to build The Reserve Bank of India hiked its repo rate for the first time in four years earlier this month. Subsequent data showing that core consumer price inflation has risen to its highest rate since July... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes keep door open for further tightening The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s June policy meeting – at which interest rates were hiked – are dominated by concerns about upside risks to inflation and the potential for damage to the... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response External trade (May) India’s goods trade deficit widened in May, but should drop back over the coming months, helped by a combination of easing oil prices and restrictions on gold imports. India isn’t particularly exposed... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated in May and looks set to remain elevated suggests that the RBI will follow up this month... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low There was a widening in India’s current account deficit in Q1 over a four-quarter sum, but the bigger picture is that the external shortfall remains at a sustainable level. In addition, FDI inflows... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Consumer price inflation rose to a four-month high in May and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last week’s hike in the repo rate with further... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated in May, due in large part to a rise in fuel inflation. Core inflation will also have remained elevated, and this is likely to be the case for... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI pulls the trigger The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to hike its repo rate today surprised the consensus, but not us. We think that elevated core inflation will prompt the central bank to raise interest rates... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans fail to take off The government’s record privatisation target set for this year is dependent in part on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. But with no firms having shown any serious interest in making a bid... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in May. But the reading is still decent, and prospects for local manufacturers look relatively bright over the near term. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Most of Emerging Asia’s PMIs picked up in May. However, the manufacturing sector in Taiwan, one of the economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, appears to be losing momentum. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Stage is set for a rate hike The consensus is expecting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep rates on hold at the upcoming meeting that concludes on Wednesday 6th June. But the hawkish tone of the previous meeting’s policy... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) Indian GDP growth surged to a two-year high in Q1. The data are much-maligned, but the broad trajectory of a pick-up in growth seems reasonable, and we think that growth will remain strong over the... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bankruptcy code finding its feet After a few teething problems in its early stages, India’s new bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
