India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in July, following the trend across most of Asia. Nevertheless, the reading remains decent, and prospects for local manufacturers remain bright over the near term. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal loosening through the back door The BJP-led government this week ruled out the possibility of issuing a blanket loan waiver for farmers ahead of next year’s general election. But this is something of a red herring. After all... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Jun.) The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports continued to soar on the back of strong wholesale consumption... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate hike likely When hiking interest rates at its most recent meeting in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined in large part by incoming data. With several indicators... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP defeats no-confidence vote Prime Minister Modi’s BJP comfortably defeated the vote of no-confidence initiated by opposition parties on Friday. The result isn’t a major surprise given that the BJP holds a majority in the Lok... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Government set to face no-confidence vote The BJP-led government faces a no-confidence vote triggered by opposition parties over the coming days. We highly doubt the motion will lead to the fall of the government, given that the BJP holds a... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it surged to its highest rate in almost five years in June and looks set to remain elevated suggests... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit widens as protectionist clouds build The further widening in India’s trade deficit last month, coupled with the growing protectionist threat from the US, will inevitably raise concerns. But unlike many other countries in Asia, India’s... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex surges, another parliament washout? While many other major EM equity markets have dropped recently amid rising fears of a global trade war, Indian equities have surged, with the Sensex reaching an all-time high this week. But while... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation rose to a five-month high in June and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last month’s hike in the repo rate with... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Healthcare insurance scheme will have limited impact In principle, Prime Minister Modi’s plan to introduce a health insurance scheme could bring numerous benefits, including from a narrow economic perspective. But the government is allocating very... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Large MSP hikes, growing fiscal concerns Confirmation this week that the government will implement large increases in the minimum support price (MSP) of key monsoon crops supports our view that rural incomes will strengthen significantly... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Strong growth likely in run-up to election Economic growth has surged in recent quarters and we expect it to remain strong over the next year or so, supported by buoyant private and government consumption ahead of the general election that is... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have stayed well above target in June, due in large part to core inflation remaining elevated by the standards of the recent past. We think that this... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped to a six-month high in June, building on the recent run of positive economic data. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain bright over the near term. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Rupee drops to record low, one year of the GST The drop in the Indian rupee to an all-time low this week has inevitably triggered comparisons with the Taper Tantrum in 2013. But we don’t think there is major cause for concern. The external... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
