India Economics Weekly Shadow banks in the spotlight After spending years in the background amid the well-documented struggles of state-owned banks, India’s “shadow” banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past week following news... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Aug.) The latest trade data for India and China show gold imports by the two largest consumers rising on lower prices, but this is unlikely to last as local prices have rallied, which has already started to... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy rates set to be hiked again Ever since starting its rate-hiking cycle in June, the RBI made clear that the future path of monetary policy will be determined by incoming data. With GDP growth surging to a two-year high in Q2 and... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bank merger another step in right direction The government’s announcement this week that it will merge three state-run banks is another step in the right direction towards fixing the beleaguered banking system, following on from the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) Global aluminium output surged by 4.0% y/y in August, the fastest rate in over a year, owing to restarts in the US and higher production in China and India. This fits with our expectation that the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shifts in trade policy There have been some notable shifts in Indian policymakers’ approach to foreign trade over the past month. For a start, the continued slide in the rupee caused the government to announce measures to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Diaspora to the rescue? The continued weakness of the rupee has triggered speculation this week that policymakers are about to adopt special measures to shore up the currency. One possibility is the reintroduction of a... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) The moderation in wholesale price inflation in August was in large part due to another drop in food inflation. But core inflation remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s tightening cycle... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Another sharp drop in food inflation pulled down headline consumer price inflation in August. But core inflation remains high and we still think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle has a little... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Strong FDI inflows boosting external position India’s current account deficit remained at a sustainable level in Q2, confounding the fears that some had expressed of a sharp widening. What’s more, the deficit is now being financed primarily by... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI intervention, GDP doubts, Delhi protests The latest slide in the rupee appears finally to have jolted the RBI into action, with widespread reports of intervention today. We doubt that this will draw a line under the rupee’s decline... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in August, in large part due to another fall in food inflation. But more important from the policy perspective, core inflation is likely to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped in August, suggesting that growth in the sector has lost a bit of momentum in Q3 after a very strong Q2. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q2) Indian GDP growth beat most expectations in Q2 and is likely to continue expanding rapidly over the coming months, supported by looser fiscal policy ahead of next year’s general election. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fuel price hikes, equities soar, demonetisation failure Fuel prices have risen to record highs in most of India’s major cities in recent weeks. This creates a political headache for the ruling BJP ahead of next year’s general election. However, the price... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weak consumer demand to drag on gold prices The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports dropped on signs that the economy is slowing, while India’s... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
