India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI minutes suggest tightening cycle not over yet The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting show that, despite keeping rates on hold, the MPC continues to place great importance on preserving its recently-acquired credibility. With... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Share buybacks won’t prevent fiscal slippage In an effort to put its finances back onto the track set out in this year’s budget, the government is now considering ordering state-owned firms to initiate share buybacks, according to reports this... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit will continue to moderate The narrowing in India’s merchandise trade deficit in September should help to temper some of the concerns that have recently been building over the external position. And looking ahead, we think that... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Sep.) The rise in wholesale price inflation in September was due in large part due to a significant rebound in food inflation. But core inflation also remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Consumer price inflation crept only a little higher last month. But with core inflation still well above the Reserve Bank’s target, we think that the tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly State elections come into focus The Electoral Commission confirmed this week that five state elections will take place before the end of 2018. As ever, these will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus A helping hand from the diaspora Remittances from abroad are a vital – yet often underappreciated – source of funding for India at the macro level, and provide significant financial support for millions of families. Remittances may... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in September, in large part because the recent sharp fall in food inflation appears to have reversed. More important from the policy perspective, core... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI pauses, but isn’t done yet The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly kept rates on hold today, but flagged several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and explicitly shifted to a more hawkish... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex has further to fall, winter MSP hikes contained We think that the recent fall in Indian equities – down by another 4% this week – has further to run. Domestically, concerns over the scale of balance sheet problems in the shadow banking sector will... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the recent jump in oil prices mean for Asia? The biggest impact of a period of sustained higher oil prices would be in India and the Philippines, whose current account deficits would be pushed even more into the red, putting further downward... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) India’s manufacturing PMI rose in September, continuing the recent run of positive economic data. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Sweeter times ahead for sugar The price of sugar has dropped sharply in response to a supply glut, making it one of the worst performing commodities so far this year. In this Commodities Watch, we outline some recent trends in the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
