India Economics Update RBI and government signal tentative truce The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government found common ground on some of the points of contention between them at the Bank’s board meeting yesterday. But key issues remain unresolved, and the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly What would be the impact if Governor Patel quit? Indian media has been awash with reports this week that RBI Governor Urjit Patel could quit his post at the Bank’s board meeting on Monday. We think this is unlikely but if he were to resign, local... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit likely to narrow India’s merchandise trade deficit widened in October but we don’t think this should reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices falling and the rupee having weakened in trade... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The rise in wholesale price inflation in October was due in large part to a jump in core inflation. With underlying price pressures set to remain elevated, we think the RBI’s tightening cycle still... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections a test of BJP’s popularity Upcoming state elections in India will, as ever, have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. They will also go some way to determining whether the ruling BJP will be able to gain... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) A renewed drop in food inflation pulled down headline inflation in October, but with core inflation rising again we still think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform boost for Vietnam, regional growth slows The opening up of Vietnam’s economy has gathered pace over the pace couple of months, with the government pressing ahead with a series of reforms which should boost the country’s economic prospects... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in October following a renewed drop in food inflation. This may prove enough to keep the RBI on the side-lines in its meeting next month. But with core... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation: two years on The benefits of the government’s demonetisation policy should be evident by now, two years after the shock announcement that the bulk of the country’s bank notes were being withdrawn. But the promised... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP boost to Asia, rate hikes unlikely in Korea The announcement that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will come into force on 30th December is important in a number of ways. Not only should it provide a boost to growth prospects across parts of Asia... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Central bank independence at stake Rising tension between the government and the RBI has dominated headlines this week, and also caused jitters in local markets. This comes as little surprise - after all, at the heart of the matter is... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped in October, bucking the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The October PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum at the start of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government risks undermining RBI credibility The Indian government is treading on dangerous ground with a number of moves that could put the independence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at risk. A loss of credibility for the central bank... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Jump in bank lending growth has further to run Data released this week show that bank lending to the private sector grew at its fastest rate since 2014 in September, and there are good reasons to think that the sustained pick-up since the start of... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Sep.) The latest trade data for China and India show gold imports tumbled in September and higher gold prices in October could mean that imports remain weak, despite the Indian wedding season. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
