India Economics Update Appointment of Modi loyalist a worrying step for RBI The first briefing from the RBI’s new governor, Shaktikanta Das, sought to provide assurance that the central bank will continue to prioritise inflation fighting. But his background at the finance... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State elections raise prospect of populist shift by Modi A disappointing set of state election results for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP suggests that the ruling national party has lost some goodwill and the risk now is that, in response, fiscal (and... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI governor’s resignation a blow to policy credibility The resignation of RBI Governor Urjit Patel signals that the government has come out on top in its dispute with the central bank, but at the cost of undermining the RBI’s credibility and its inflation... 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Oil price drop to strengthen current account position India’s current account deficit widened in Q3 but we don’t think this should reignite concerns over the external position. With oil prices having dropped sharply since then, the deficit will remain... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI confusion, Rajasthan election Some have interpreted the small cuts to the statutory liquidity ratio announced by the RBI this week as evidence that the central bank is loosening policy, but we disagree. Meanwhile, the state... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased again in November due to a sharp drop in fuel price inflation. But with core inflation likely to remain elevated for a while yet, we think the... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has a little further to run The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept rates on hold today, but continued to flag several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and maintained the hawkish description of... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped again in November, defying the drop in the PMI readings across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum in the middle of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Indian GDP growth slowed in Q3 but remained strong by recent standards. The economy should continue to expand rapidly over the coming months, supported by looser fiscal policy ahead of next year’s... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly NBFC strains a headwind, but not catastrophic The recent drop in corporate bond issuance has been taken by many as a sign that a rise in the risk premium since the debt default by IL&FS Group is constraining local firms’ ability to borrow. The... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GDP revisions underline recent strength The revised GDP data for the past decade that have just been released suggest that recent growth has been further above India’s sustainable rate than previously thought. This underlines why the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch On hold for now, but tightening cycle not over yet The recent drop in headline inflation, coupled with the sharp fall in global oil prices, should be enough to ensure that the RBI keeps policy rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Oct.) Gold imports by China and India slumped on a y/y basis in October. However, we expect a rebound in imports to India in the coming months as gold prices in rupee terms have dropped back. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI still battling, fuel price cuts, Maharashtra protests The RBI’s highly-publicised board meeting passed without much incident this week, but this has by no means eased the tensions between the central bank and government, nor concerns over the RBI’s... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Oil price fall to boost current account position As one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, India should be a key beneficiary of the recent slide in global oil prices. If prices remain lower, as we think likely, the oil import bill will... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
