India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in December further diminishes the case for rate hikes in the near term. The RBI’s new governor seems keen to lower rates but, with core inflation still... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in December, further undermining the case for any further rate hikes in the near term. But the appointment of a dovish new governor of the RBI means we are... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The sharp drop in industrial production growth in November is in large part linked to the shift in the timing of the Diwali holidays last year. Near-term prospects for industry remain fairly upbeat. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI coughs up a little cash, Sensex forecasts A report this week that the RBI will transfer an “interim” dividend to the government has been wrongly linked by some to the government’s efforts to get the central bank to hand over more of its cash... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Election will be turning point for the economy Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of this year. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) The recent weakness of headline consumer price inflation, which we think dropped a little further in December, has undermined the case for any further rate hikes in the near term. But we are more... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we take a look at the important elections that are set to take place across Emerging Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Election measures raise long-term risks The drumbeat of pre-election giveaways continues at the state level in the form of loan waivers and from the national government. These steps may be effective politically but they risk eroding... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in December, but the reading still indicates that the sector was performing well at the end of 2018. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal giveaways getting ramped up The dust has barely settled from the state election results announced last week, but our prediction that they would trigger a spate of fiscal giveaways is already being borne out. Farmer loan waivers... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack A mixed year for markets 2018 has been a mixed bag for India’s financial markets. The bond market has seen significant gyrations, only for yields to end the year virtually flat from 12 months ago. Meanwhile, the 7% rise in... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus What to expect in 2019 Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened and... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to narrow further India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed a touch in November and, with oil prices likely to stay lower, we think that the deficit will shrink further over the coming months. 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Nov.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in November and, taken alongside the drop in CPI inflation last month as well as the appointment of an ally of Prime Minister Modi as the new governor of the... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly BJP losses and new RBI governor raise policy risk The state election results announced this week were a clear setback for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP, as they suggest that goodwill is fading ahead of next year’s general election. While we still think... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Industrial Production (Oct.) Although industrial production growth remains strong and core inflation is staying elevated, with headline inflation down sharply and an ally of Prime Minister Modi, Shaktikanta Das, the new head of... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
