India Economics Weekly Dodgy data, slumping Sensex Recent developments have again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to any... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The drop in headline wholesale price inflation in January was broad based, but underlying inflation is likely to rise again before long. This underlines why we think the RBI’s recent rate cut, as well... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Headline consumer price inflation was low and virtually unchanged in January but, more importantly, core inflation remained elevated. The RBI suggested last week that the core rate has been boosted by... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI changes tack The RBI was able to point to a fall in inflation to justify its rate cut this week. But it also took a more sanguine line on the risks posed by still-high core inflation. We believe this will prove to... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI delivers pre-election rate cut The RBI’s new governor Shaktikanta Das has delivered what the Modi government was hoping for. The “calibrated tightening” stance was jettisoned at his first policy meeting today in favour of a rate... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Interim budget plans lack substance The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget today to shore up popular support ahead of the general election with proposals to boost rural incomes and cut income tax. But it is also... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India’s manufacturing PMI jumped in January, defying the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly bright over the near term. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Universal Basic Income is worthy but unfeasible The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in India has gained attention again this week. While a UBI could go a long way towards eradicating poverty and reducing the problems with the current welfare... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to lay groundwork for policy loosening We agree with financial market expectations and the analyst consensus that interest rates will stay on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on 7th February – the first under the stewardship of... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Dec.) The latest trade data from India and China show that gold imports slumped in December. We expect the decline in imports to continue in India, for January at least, as prices are higher in local... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly IMF too optimistic, Goyal won’t alter the budget The IMF released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Fund is forecasting seems... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from the interim budget The finance ministry will be keen to include some election sweeteners in the interim budget that is due on 1st February. But it will also want to demonstrate fiscal rectitude. The most likely outcome... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Government attempts to woo SMEs Election giveaways in India have been ramped up significantly this month, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) the main beneficiaries. Firms with annual sales of less than INR0.4m are now... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Subdued outlook for exports The relative weakness of the rupee is doing little to boost India’s exporters, who are finding it hard to capitalise given a weakening of global demand and their own capacity constraints. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 10-month low in December and, with oil prices likely to fall further, we think the shortfall will shrink a little more over the coming months. In turn... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
